Upset Brief · CA-03 · Robb Tucker (R) vs. Ami Bera (D), incumbent

Tucker gets within 12,694 votes on campaign work alone. A 4.4-point national shift finishes it.

20%
odds today
27%
odds with the plan
17,447
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Unincorporated Placer County
    Starting line Tucker +19. 3.0% split their ticket. About 10,504 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +1,528
  2. 02
    Unincorporated Sacramento County
    Starting line Bera +17. 1.8% split their ticket.
    +952
  3. 03
    Folsom
    Starting line Bera +1. 3.5% split their ticket.
    +666
  4. 04
    Unincorporated Nevada County
    Starting line Tucker +2. 2.2% split their ticket.
    +502
  5. 05
    Rancho Cordova
    Starting line Bera +10. 1.2% split their ticket.
    +182
  6. 06
    Loomis
    Starting line Tucker +37. 2.9% split their ticket. About 929 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +175

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 99% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,315 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bera today.
    +3,315
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 11,695 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Tucker's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +784
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Tucker's way.
    +654

Plus a national shift of 4.4 points of margin (12,694 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Tucker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bera.
  2. In Unincorporated Placer County and Loomis, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 4.4 points toward Tucker's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    559 precincts, R² 0.981, 169 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,004 to 21,131 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Tucker $16,000 cash on hand; Bera $1,830,338.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    13,934 households, 41,801 dials, about 2,190 live conversations: an estimated $5,872 at published rates.
For the campaign

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.