How Robb Tucker wins.
Bera starts 6.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Tucker within 12,694 votes; a 4.4-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Unincorporated Placer County, Unincorporated Sacramento County and Folsom.
Tucker gets within 12,694 votes on campaign work alone. A 4.4-point national shift finishes it.
144,370 votes.
That is half of the 288,739 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Tucker stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
20% today. 27% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 3,315 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bera today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Tucker needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Bera.
Who. At least 11,695 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Tucker's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Tucker's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 4,753 net votes against a gap of 17,447. Still 12,694 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 4.4 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 99% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+1,528Unincorporated Placer CountypersuadeStarting line Tucker +19. 3.0% split their ticket. About 10,504 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+952Unincorporated Sacramento CountypersuadeStarting line Bera +17. 1.8% split their ticket.
- 03+666FolsompersuadeStarting line Bera +1. 3.5% split their ticket.
- 04+502Unincorporated Nevada CountypersuadeStarting line Tucker +2. 2.2% split their ticket.
- 05+182Rancho CordovapersuadeStarting line Bera +10. 1.2% split their ticket.
- 06+175LoomismobilizeStarting line Tucker +37. 2.9% split their ticket. About 929 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+174Unincorporated El Dorado CountypersuadeStarting line Tucker +7. 2.4% split their ticket.
- 08+157SacramentopersuadeStarting line Bera +40. 1.9% split their ticket.
- 09+114TruckeepersuadeStarting line Bera +48. 2.8% split their ticket.
- 10+111AuburnpersuadeStarting line Tucker +2. 2.7% split their ticket.
- 11+74South Lake TahoepersuadeStarting line Bera +26. 2.1% split their ticket.
- 12+62Grass ValleypersuadeStarting line Bera +17. 1.9% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Unincorporated Placer County carries the most.
Unincorporated Placer County gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 1,528. It sits at Tucker +19 on our starting line, and 3.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Loomis is a turnout race.
Tucker's side leads Loomis by about 37 points on our starting line, and it cast about 929 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 118 votes there.
Folsom splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Folsom has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Bera had $1.83 million in cash on hand to Tucker's $16K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Tucker's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 559
- Slope
- 1.004
- R²
- 0.981
- Residual SD
- 3.4 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 169
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Tucker's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Tucker, with Bera, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,315 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 11,695 of them live where Tucker is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.1 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 6.0 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 1.9 points.
- Tucker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bera.
- In Unincorporated Placer County and Loomis, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 4.4 points toward Tucker's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,190 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 41,801 dials to 13,934 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,872 at our published rates: 13,934 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Robb Tucker (R)
Businessman elected to the Nevada County Board of Supervisors in 2024, endorsed by the California Republican Party and every Republican county central committee in the new district.
Cash on hand $16,000 and $258,139 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Ami Bera (D)
Physician and U.S. Representative for Sacramento County since 2013, raised in La Palma and trained at UC Irvine; he previously served as an associate dean at the UC Davis School of Medicine.
Cash on hand $1,830,338 and $1,250,126 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bera +6.0. Robb Tucker needs 17,447 net votes. Odds 20% today, 27% with the plan.
Questions
Can Robb Tucker win California's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,753 net votes; the gap is 17,447. The rest would take a 4.4-point national shift.
Where are the votes Robb Tucker needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Unincorporated Placer County, Unincorporated Sacramento County, Folsom, Unincorporated Nevada County, Rancho Cordova. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Robb Tucker need to persuade?
About 1,658 voters who lean Ami Bera today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,315 persuadable voters leaning Ami Bera.
When does early voting start in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)