Upset Brief · CA-30 · Scott Alan Meyers (R) vs. Laura Friedman (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 43.4-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
108,602
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Glendale
    Starting line Friedman +21. 4.2% split their ticket.
    +1,098
  2. 02
    Los Angeles
    Starting line Friedman +57. 0.5% split their ticket.
    +478
  3. 03
    Unincorporated Los Angeles County
    Starting line Meyers +37. 1.0% split their ticket. About 1,927 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +285
  4. 04
    Burbank
    Starting line Friedman +35. 0.7% split their ticket.
    +170
  5. 05
    West Hollywood
    Starting line Friedman +66. 0.7% split their ticket.
    +60
  6. 06
    Pasadena
    Starting line Friedman +47. 2.8% split their ticket.
    +60

The top 7 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,616 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Friedman today.
    +1,616
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 1,927 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Meyers's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +244
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Meyers's way.
    +320

Plus a national shift of 43.4 points of margin (106,422 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Meyers wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Friedman.
  2. In Unincorporated Los Angeles County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 43.4 points toward Meyers's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    225 precincts, R² 0.965, 28 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,867 to -78,085 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Meyers $2,616 cash on hand; Friedman $469,254.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    4,191 households, 12,573 dials, about 659 live conversations: an estimated $2,391 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $2,391 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.