What it would take for Scott Alan Meyers.
Friedman starts 44.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 2,180 net votes toward Meyers, a 0.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 43.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Meyers the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 43.4-point national wave.
122,703 votes.
That is half of the 245,405 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Meyers stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,616 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Friedman today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Meyers needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Friedman.
Who. At least 1,927 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Meyers's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Meyers's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 2,180 net votes against a gap of 108,602. Still 106,422 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 43.4 points that no campaign controls.
7 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+1,098GlendalepersuadeStarting line Friedman +21. 4.2% split their ticket.
- 02+478Los AngelespersuadeStarting line Friedman +57. 0.5% split their ticket.
- 03+285Unincorporated Los Angeles CountymobilizeStarting line Meyers +37. 1.0% split their ticket. About 1,927 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+170BurbankpersuadeStarting line Friedman +35. 0.7% split their ticket.
- 05+60West HollywoodpersuadeStarting line Friedman +66. 0.7% split their ticket.
- 06+60PasadenapersuadeStarting line Friedman +47. 2.8% split their ticket.
- 07+30Santa ClaritapersuadeStarting line Meyers +5. 1.2% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Glendale carries the most.
Glendale gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 1,098. It sits at Friedman +21 on our starting line, and 4.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Unincorporated Los Angeles County is a turnout race.
Meyers's side leads Unincorporated Los Angeles County by about 37 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,927 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 244 votes there.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Friedman had $469K in cash on hand to Meyers's $2,616. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 2,180 net votes. The gap is 108,602. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 0.9 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Meyers's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 225
- Slope
- 0.876
- R²
- 0.965
- Residual SD
- 4.8 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 28
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Meyers's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Meyers, with Friedman, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,616 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 1,927 of them live where Meyers is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 40.0 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 42.2 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 48.2 points.
- Meyers wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Friedman.
- In Unincorporated Los Angeles County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 43.4 points toward Meyers's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
659 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 12,573 dials to 4,191 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,391 at our published rates: 4,191 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Scott Alan Meyers (R)
Attorney and small business owner who earned his law degree at Pepperdine University School of Law and has practiced civil law for 37 years. A lifelong Southern California resident, he also holds a political science degree from UCLA.
Cash on hand $2,616 and $58,294 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Laura Friedman (D)
U.S. Representative since 2025 and a former film producer, she served in the California State Assembly from 2016 to 2024, representing the 43rd District and then the 44th after redistricting, following her service on the Glendale City Council, including as mayor.
Cash on hand $469,254 and $827,895 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Friedman +44.2. Scott Alan Meyers needs 108,602 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Scott Alan Meyers win California's 30th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 2,180 net votes; the gap is 108,602. The rest would take a 43.4-point national shift.
Where are the votes Scott Alan Meyers needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Glendale, Los Angeles, Unincorporated Los Angeles County, Burbank, West Hollywood. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Scott Alan Meyers need to persuade?
About 808 voters who lean Laura Friedman today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,616 persuadable voters leaning Laura Friedman.
When does early voting start in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)