A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.2-point national wave.

1. 01
   Glendora

   Starting line Ching +10. 2.4% split their ticket.
   +272
2. 02
   La Verne

   Starting line Ching +6. 3.1% split their ticket.
   +220
3. 03
   San Dimas

   Starting line Ching +8. 3.0% split their ticket.
   +212
4. 04
   Chino

   Starting line Ching +7. 1.5% split their ticket.
   +175
5. 05
   Monrovia

   Starting line Cisneros +26. 2.4% split their ticket.
   +167
6. 06
   Unincorporated Los Angeles County

   Starting line Cisneros +20. 0.7% split their ticket.
   +110

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  1,304 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cisneros today.
  +1,304
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Ching's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Ching's way.
  +341

Plus a national shift of 9.2 points of margin (16,708 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Ching wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cisneros.
2. The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward Ching's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  427 precincts, R² 0.972, 138 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -37,519 to 4,098 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Ching $64,913 cash on hand; Cisneros $259,803.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  2,472 households, 7,417 dials, about 389 live conversations: an estimated $1,533 at published rates.