California · U.S. House · District 31 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Eric Ching.

Cisneros starts 10.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,645 net votes toward Ching, a 0.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 9.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Ching the one standing if one comes.

18,354

net votes between Ching and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

10.2 pts

Cisneros lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.2-point national wave.

Odds today7%

Odds with the plan9%

Net votes to find18,354

WhereGlendora, La Verne, San Dimas

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Cisneros +10.2. Eric Ching needs 18,354 net votes. Odds 7% today, 9% with the plan.

The number

90,320 votes.

That is half of the 180,638 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ching stands today, and what is missing:

80,050 Eric Ching baseline

98,404 Gil Cisneros baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

7% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Ching wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Ching short by 16,755.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,304

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,304

Who. 1,304 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cisneros today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ching needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Cisneros.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Ching's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

341

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 975

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Ching's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 1,645 net votes against a gap of 18,354. Still 16,709 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 9.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Glendorapersuade
Starting line Ching +10. 2.4% split their ticket.
+272
02
La Vernepersuade
Starting line Ching +6. 3.1% split their ticket.
+220
03
San Dimaspersuade
Starting line Ching +8. 3.0% split their ticket.
+212
04
Chinopersuade
Starting line Ching +7. 1.5% split their ticket.
+175
05
Monroviapersuade
Starting line Cisneros +26. 2.4% split their ticket.
+167
06
Unincorporated Los Angeles Countypersuade
Starting line Cisneros +20. 0.7% split their ticket.
+110
07
West Covinapersuade
Starting line Cisneros +18. 0.5% split their ticket.
+97
08
Walnutpersuade
Starting line Cisneros +10. 1.6% split their ticket.
+92
09
Covinapersuade
Starting line Cisneros +12. 1.0% split their ticket.
+88
10
Pomonapersuade
Starting line Cisneros +25. 0.8% split their ticket.
+57
11
Azusapersuade
Starting line Cisneros +21. 0.8% split their ticket.
+55
12
Duartepersuade
Starting line Cisneros +26. 0.5% split their ticket.
+27

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Glendora carries the most.

Glendora gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 272. It sits at Ching +10 on our starting line, and 2.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

La Verne splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, La Verne has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Cisneros had $260K in cash on hand to Ching's $65K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 1,645 net votes. The gap is 18,354. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 0.9 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ching's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 427
Slope: 1.071
R²: 0.972
Residual SD: 2.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 138

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ching's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ching, with Cisneros, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,304 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Ching is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 12.2 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 9.5 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 9.4 points.

Ching wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cisneros.
The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward Ching's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

389 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 7,417 dials to 2,472 households, before the last ballot is cast.

2,472

households on the target list

7,417

dials across three attempts

389

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,533 at our published rates: 2,472 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Eric Ching (R)

Entrepreneur and IT professional who immigrated from Taiwan in 1982 and was elected to the Walnut City Council in 2012, serving two terms as mayor.

Cash on hand $64,913 and $81,571 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Gil Cisneros (D)

U.S. Navy veteran who has represented CA-31 since 2025. He previously served as Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness in the Biden administration and represented CA-39 from 2019 to 2021.

Cash on hand $259,803 and $705,263 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Cisneros +10.2. Eric Ching needs 18,354 net votes. Odds 7% today, 9% with the plan.

Questions

Can Eric Ching win California's 31st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,645 net votes; the gap is 18,354. The rest would take a 9.2-point national shift.

Where are the votes Eric Ching needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Glendora, La Verne, San Dimas, Chino, Monrovia. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Eric Ching need to persuade?

About 652 voters who lean Gil Cisneros today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,304 persuadable voters leaning Gil Cisneros.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.