What it would have taken for Eric Ching.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Cisneros starts 10.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,645 net votes toward Ching, a 0.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 9.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Ching the one standing if one comes.
Gil Cisneros won.
Eric Ching finished 18.2 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies, about 70.9% counted, so shares will shift. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.2-point national wave.
90,320 votes.
That is half of the 180,638 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ching stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
7% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,304 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cisneros today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ching needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Cisneros.
Who. Few cities and unincorporated areas give Ching's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 1,645 net votes against a gap of 18,354. Still 16,709 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 9.2 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+272GlendorapersuadeStarting line Ching +10. 2.4% split their ticket.
- 02+220La VernepersuadeStarting line Ching +6. 3.1% split their ticket.
- 03+212San DimaspersuadeStarting line Ching +8. 3.0% split their ticket.
- 04+175ChinopersuadeStarting line Ching +7. 1.5% split their ticket.
- 05+167MonroviapersuadeStarting line Cisneros +26. 2.4% split their ticket.
- 06+110Unincorporated Los Angeles CountypersuadeStarting line Cisneros +20. 0.7% split their ticket.
- 07+97West CovinapersuadeStarting line Cisneros +18. 0.5% split their ticket.
- 08+92WalnutpersuadeStarting line Cisneros +10. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 09+88CovinapersuadeStarting line Cisneros +12. 1.0% split their ticket.
- 10+57PomonapersuadeStarting line Cisneros +25. 0.8% split their ticket.
- 11+55AzusapersuadeStarting line Cisneros +21. 0.8% split their ticket.
- 12+27DuartepersuadeStarting line Cisneros +26. 0.5% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Glendora carries the most.
Glendora gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 272. It sits at Ching +10 on our starting line, and 2.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
La Verne splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, La Verne has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Cisneros had $260K in cash on hand to Ching's $65K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 1,645 net votes. The gap is 18,354. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 0.9 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ching's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 427
- Slope
- 1.071
- R²
- 0.972
- Residual SD
- 2.8 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 138
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ching's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ching, with Cisneros, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,304 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Ching is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box or vote center in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 12.2 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 9.5 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 9.4 points.
- Ching wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cisneros.
- The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward Ching's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
389 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 7,417 dials to 2,472 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,533 at our published rates: 2,472 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Eric Ching (R)
Entrepreneur and IT professional who immigrated from Taiwan in 1982 and was elected to the Walnut City Council in 2012, serving two terms as mayor.
Cash on hand $64,913 and $81,571 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Gil Cisneros (D)
U.S. Navy veteran who has represented CA-31 since 2025. He previously served as Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness in the Biden administration and represented CA-39 from 2019 to 2021.
Cash on hand $259,803 and $705,263 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Eric Ching lost
Unofficial result: Eric Ching 35.8%, Gil Cisneros 64.2%, a margin of 28.4 points. Our starting line had Cisneros +10.2; Ching fell short of that line by 18.2 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Cisneros +10.2. Eric Ching needs 18,354 net votes. Odds 7% today, 9% with the plan.
Questions
Who won CA-31 in 2026?
Gil Cisneros won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Eric Ching 35.8%, Gil Cisneros 64.2%, a margin of 28.4 points. Our starting line had Cisneros +10.2; Ching fell short of that line by 18.2 points.
Can Eric Ching win California's 31st Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,645 net votes; the gap is 18,354. The rest would take a 9.2-point national shift.
Where are the votes Eric Ching needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Glendora, La Verne, San Dimas, Chino, Monrovia. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Eric Ching need to persuade?
About 652 voters who lean Gil Cisneros today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,304 persuadable voters leaning Gil Cisneros.
When are ballots mailed in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)