A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.9-point national wave.

1. 01
   Los Angeles

   Starting line Lieu +54. 1.9% split their ticket.
   +1,112
2. 02
   Manhattan Beach

   Starting line Lieu +22. 6.1% split their ticket.
   +577
3. 03
   Torrance

   Starting line Lieu +11. 3.2% split their ticket.
   +541
4. 04
   Santa Monica

   Starting line Lieu +58. 2.3% split their ticket.
   +501
5. 05
   Redondo Beach

   Starting line Lieu +30. 3.0% split their ticket.
   +465
6. 06
   Rancho Palos Verdes

   Starting line Lieu +8. 3.8% split their ticket.
   +394

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 98% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  4,349 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lieu today.
  +4,349
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 156 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Brignano's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +13
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Brignano's way.
  +431

Plus a national shift of 33.9 points of margin (100,075 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Brignano wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lieu.
2. The national environment moves about 33.9 points toward Brignano's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  224 precincts, R² 0.982, 59 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,219 to -65,997 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Brignano $801 cash on hand; Lieu $1,188,399.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  6,958 households, 20,874 dials, about 1,094 live conversations: an estimated $3,624 at published rates.