What it would have taken for Houston Brignano.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Lieu starts 35.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,793 net votes toward Brignano, a 1.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 33.9-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Brignano the one standing if one comes.
Ted W. Lieu won.
Houston Brignano finished 7.0 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies, about 72% counted, so shares will shift. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.9-point national wave.
147,431 votes.
That is half of the 294,861 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Brignano stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 4,349 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lieu today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Brignano needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Lieu.
Who. Few cities and unincorporated areas give Brignano's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 4,793 net votes against a gap of 104,867. Still 100,074 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 33.9 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 98% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+1,112Los AngelespersuadeStarting line Lieu +54. 1.9% split their ticket.
- 02+577Manhattan BeachpersuadeStarting line Lieu +22. 6.1% split their ticket.
- 03+541TorrancepersuadeStarting line Lieu +11. 3.2% split their ticket.
- 04+501Santa MonicapersuadeStarting line Lieu +58. 2.3% split their ticket.
- 05+465Redondo BeachpersuadeStarting line Lieu +30. 3.0% split their ticket.
- 06+394Rancho Palos VerdespersuadeStarting line Lieu +8. 3.8% split their ticket.
- 07+284Beverly HillspersuadeStarting line Brignano +2. 4.3% split their ticket.
- 08+226Palos Verdes EstatespersuadeStarting line Lieu +2. 5.8% split their ticket.
- 09+224Hermosa BeachpersuadeStarting line Lieu +30. 4.8% split their ticket.
- 10+171El SegundopersuadeStarting line Lieu +24. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 11+115Rolling Hills EstatespersuadeStarting line Lieu +1. 5.2% split their ticket.
- 12+64Unincorporated Los Angeles CountypersuadeStarting line Lieu +38. 2.4% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Los Angeles carries the most.
Los Angeles gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 1,112. It sits at Lieu +54 on our starting line, and 1.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Manhattan Beach splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Manhattan Beach has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Lieu had $1.19 million in cash on hand to Brignano's under $1,000. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 4,793 net votes. The gap is 104,867. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.6 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Brignano's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 224
- Slope
- 1.008
- R²
- 0.982
- Residual SD
- 3.2 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 59
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Brignano's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Brignano, with Lieu, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,349 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Brignano is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box or vote center in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 39.1 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 33.6 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 33.7 points.
- Brignano wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lieu.
- It would take a national shift of about 33.9 points toward Brignano's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,094 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 20,874 dials to 6,958 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,624 at our published rates: 6,958 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Houston Brignano (R)
Technology executive who leads infrastructure architecture at City National Bank and a Marine Corps veteran who served two tours in Iraq.
Cash on hand $801 and $5,139 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Ted W. Lieu (D)
Attorney and U.S. Air Force veteran (active duty JAG, later Air Force Reserve) who has served in Congress since 2015. He previously served on the Torrance City Council and in the California State Assembly and State Senate.
Cash on hand $1,188,399 and $1,832,769 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Houston Brignano lost
Unofficial result: Houston Brignano 28.7%, Ted W. Lieu 71.3%, a margin of 42.6 points. Our starting line had Lieu +35.6; Brignano fell short of that line by 7.0 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Lieu +35.6. Houston Brignano needs 104,867 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Who won CA-36 in 2026?
Ted W. Lieu won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Houston Brignano 28.7%, Ted W. Lieu 71.3%, a margin of 42.6 points. Our starting line had Lieu +35.6; Brignano fell short of that line by 7.0 points.
Can Houston Brignano win California's 36th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 4,793 net votes against a gap of 104,867; the rest would take a 33.9-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Houston Brignano needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Los Angeles, Manhattan Beach, Torrance, Santa Monica, Redondo Beach. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Houston Brignano need to persuade?
About 2,174 voters who lean Ted W. Lieu today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,349 persuadable voters leaning Ted W. Lieu.
When are ballots mailed in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)