Upset Brief · CA-38 · Pedro Antonio Casas (R) vs. Hilda Solis (D)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.5-point national wave.

9%
odds today
14%
odds with the plan
15,263
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Yorba Linda
    Starting line Casas +27. 3.3% split their ticket. About 9,855 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +1,498
  2. 02
    Anaheim
    Starting line Casas +14. 2.6% split their ticket. About 3,862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +314
  3. 03
    Unincorporated Los Angeles County
    Starting line Solis +16. 0.9% split their ticket.
    +245
  4. 04
    Diamond Bar
    Starting line Solis +5. 1.7% split their ticket.
    +167
  5. 05
    La Habra Heights
    Starting line Casas +22. 4.2% split their ticket. About 715 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +107
  6. 06
    Brea
    Starting line Casas +7. 3.3% split their ticket.
    +107

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,475 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Solis today.
    +1,475
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 14,876 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Casas's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,148
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Casas's way.
    +351

Plus a national shift of 7.5 points of margin (12,289 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Casas wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Solis.
  2. In Yorba Linda and Anaheim, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 7.5 points toward Casas's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    305 precincts, R² 0.986, 80 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -31,302 to 6,877 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Casas no FEC totals reported; Solis $154,503.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,992 households, 38,976 dials, about 2,042 live conversations: an estimated $5,475 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,475 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.