California · U.S. House · District 38 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Pedro Antonio Casas.

Solis starts 9.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 2,974 net votes toward Casas, a 1.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 7.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Casas the one standing if one comes.

15,263

net votes between Casas and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

9.3 pts

Solis lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.5-point national wave.

Odds today9%

Odds with the plan14%

Net votes to find15,263

WhereYorba Linda, Anaheim, Unincorporated Los Angeles County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Solis +9.3. Pedro Antonio Casas needs 15,263 net votes. Odds 9% today, 14% with the plan.

The number

81,858 votes.

That is half of the 163,714 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Casas stands today, and what is missing:

73,130 Pedro Antonio Casas baseline

88,393 Hilda Solis baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

9% today. 14% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Casas wins in

14%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Casas short by 12,308.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,475

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,475

Who. 1,475 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Solis today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Casas needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Solis.

Mobilize

1,148

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,876

Who. At least 14,876 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Casas's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

351

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,004

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Casas's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 2,974 net votes against a gap of 15,263. Still 12,289 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 7.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Yorba Lindamobilize
Starting line Casas +27. 3.3% split their ticket. About 9,855 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+1,498
02
Anaheimmobilize
Starting line Casas +14. 2.6% split their ticket. About 3,862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+314
03
Unincorporated Los Angeles Countypersuade
Starting line Solis +16. 0.9% split their ticket.
+245
04
Diamond Barpersuade
Starting line Solis +5. 1.7% split their ticket.
+167
05
La Habra Heightsmobilize
Starting line Casas +22. 4.2% split their ticket. About 715 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+107
06
Breapersuade
Starting line Casas +7. 3.3% split their ticket.
+107
07
Baldwin Parkpersuade
Starting line Solis +33. 1.6% split their ticket.
+102
08
El Montepersuade
Starting line Solis +28. 1.2% split their ticket.
+94
09
Placentiapersuade
Starting line Casas +8. 2.6% split their ticket.
+87
10
Unincorporated Orange Countymobilize
Starting line Casas +25. 4.3% split their ticket. About 444 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+64
11
Pico Riverapersuade
Starting line Solis +36. 0.8% split their ticket.
+42
12
Bellpersuade
Starting line Solis +40. 1.9% split their ticket.
+38

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Yorba Linda carries the most.

Yorba Linda gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 1,498. It sits at Casas +27 on our starting line, and 3.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Anaheim is a turnout race.

Casas's side leads Anaheim by about 14 points on our starting line, and it cast about 3,862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 170 votes there.

Unincorporated Orange County splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Unincorporated Orange County has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 2,974 net votes. The gap is 15,263. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.8 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Casas's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 305
Slope: 1.081
R²: 0.986
Residual SD: 2.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 80

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Casas's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Casas, with Solis, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,475 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 14,876 of them live where Casas is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 12.4 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 9.5 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 10.9 points.

Casas wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Solis.
In Yorba Linda and Anaheim, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 7.5 points toward Casas's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,042 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 38,976 dials to 12,992 households, before the last ballot is cast.

13K

households on the target list

39K

dials across three attempts

2,042

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,475 at our published rates: 12,992 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Pedro Antonio Casas (R)

Retired U.S. Army colonel and clinical, forensic and aero-medical psychologist raised in Baldwin Park. He holds a B.S. in psychology from the University of La Verne and a Ph.D. in counseling psychology from UC Santa Barbara.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Hilda Solis (D)

Los Angeles County Supervisor since 2014 and chair of the Board of Supervisors. She served as the 25th U.S. Secretary of Labor (2009 to 2013) and represented East Los Angeles and San Gabriel Valley districts in the U.S. House from 2001 to 2009.

Cash on hand $154,503 and $1,049,534 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Solis +9.3. Pedro Antonio Casas needs 15,263 net votes. Odds 9% today, 14% with the plan.

Questions

Can Pedro Antonio Casas win California's 38th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 2,974 net votes; the gap is 15,263. The rest would take a 7.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Pedro Antonio Casas needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Yorba Linda, Anaheim, Unincorporated Los Angeles County, Diamond Bar, La Habra Heights. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Pedro Antonio Casas need to persuade?

About 738 voters who lean Hilda Solis today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,475 persuadable voters leaning Hilda Solis.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.