A long shot on the math: it takes a 8.5-point national wave.

1. 01
   Riverside

   Starting line Takano +5. 0.9% split their ticket.
   +462
2. 02
   Moreno Valley

   Starting line Takano +20.
   +120
3. 03
   Jurupa Valley

   Starting line Manos +2.
   +67
4. 04
   Perris

   Starting line Takano +24. 1.1% split their ticket.
   +62
5. 05
   Unincorporated Riverside County

   Starting line Takano +2. 0.5% split their ticket.
   +31

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  472 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Takano today.
  +472
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Manos's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Manos's way.
  +270

Plus a national shift of 8.5 points of margin (11,628 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Manos wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Takano.
2. The national environment moves about 8.5 points toward Manos's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  224 precincts, R² 0.975, 51 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,341 to 4,053 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Manos no FEC totals reported; Takano $186,224.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  1,183 households, 3,550 dials, about 186 live conversations: an estimated $793 at published rates.