A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.5-point national wave.

1. 01
   Whittier

   Starting line Sánchez +14. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +245
2. 02
   Long Beach

   Starting line Sánchez +17. 3.4% split their ticket.
   +240
3. 03
   Lakewood

   Starting line Sánchez +11. 1.9% split their ticket.
   +239
4. 04
   Brea

   Starting line Clemmons +6. 3.0% split their ticket.
   +198
5. 05
   La Mirada

   Starting line Clemmons +3. 2.1% split their ticket.
   +186
6. 06
   La Habra

   Starting line Sánchez +2. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +155

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 89% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  1,801 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sánchez today.
  +1,801
• M
  Mobilize

  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Clemmons's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +369

Plus a national shift of 10.5 points of margin (20,432 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Clemmons wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sánchez.
2. It would take a national shift of about 10.5 points toward Clemmons's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  284 precincts, R² 0.956, 57 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -43,180 to 2,236 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Clemmons $1,659 cash on hand; Sánchez $415,746.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  3,212 households, 9,637 dials, about 505 live conversations: an estimated $1,832 at published rates.