What it would take for Mitch Clemmons.
Sánchez starts 11.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 2,170 net votes toward Clemmons, a 1.1-point gain. Winning outright would take a 10.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Clemmons the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.5-point national wave.
97,743 votes.
That is half of the 195,485 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Clemmons stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
5% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,801 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sánchez today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Clemmons needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Sánchez.
Who. There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Clemmons's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Clemmons's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 2,170 net votes against a gap of 22,602. Still 20,432 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 10.5 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 89% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+245WhittierpersuadeStarting line Sánchez +14. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 02+240Long BeachpersuadeStarting line Sánchez +17. 3.4% split their ticket.
- 03+239LakewoodpersuadeStarting line Sánchez +11. 1.9% split their ticket.
- 04+198BreapersuadeStarting line Clemmons +6. 3.0% split their ticket.
- 05+186La MiradapersuadeStarting line Clemmons +3. 2.1% split their ticket.
- 06+155La HabrapersuadeStarting line Sánchez +2. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 07+154DowneypersuadeStarting line Sánchez +17. 0.9% split their ticket.
- 08+145FullertonpersuadeStarting line Clemmons +6. 3.7% split their ticket.
- 09+125Unincorporated Orange CountypersuadeStarting line Clemmons +7. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 10+97Unincorporated Los Angeles CountypersuadeStarting line Sánchez +13. 0.9% split their ticket.
- 11+80Bell GardenspersuadeStarting line Sánchez +43. 3.5% split their ticket.
- 12+70Los AlamitospersuadeStarting line Clemmons +3. 3.3% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Whittier carries the most.
Whittier gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 245. It sits at Sánchez +14 on our starting line, and 1.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Unincorporated Orange County splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Unincorporated Orange County has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Sánchez had $416K in cash on hand to Clemmons's $1,659. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 2,170 net votes. The gap is 22,602. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.1 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Clemmons's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 284
- Slope
- 1.088
- R²
- 0.956
- Residual SD
- 2.9 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 57
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Clemmons's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Clemmons, with Sánchez, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,801 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Clemmons is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 14.2 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 10.9 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 10.5 points.
- Clemmons wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sánchez.
- The national environment moves about 10.5 points toward Clemmons's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
505 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 9,637 dials to 3,212 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,832 at our published rates: 3,212 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Mitch Clemmons (R)
Plumbing contractor who has owned his own plumbing company since 2002. He studied aerospace engineering technology at Cal Poly Pomona.
Cash on hand $1,659 and $1,709 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Linda Sánchez (D)
U.S. Representative since 2003 and a member of the Ways and Means Committee; she chaired the Congressional Hispanic Caucus in the 114th Congress. A former labor and employment attorney, she holds a B.A. from UC Berkeley and a J.D. from UCLA.
Cash on hand $415,746 and $1,602,790 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Sánchez +11.6. Mitch Clemmons needs 22,602 net votes. Odds 5% today, 7% with the plan.
Questions
Can Mitch Clemmons win California's 41st Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 2,170 net votes; the gap is 22,602. The rest would take a 10.5-point national shift.
Where are the votes Mitch Clemmons needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Whittier, Long Beach, Lakewood, Brea, La Mirada. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Mitch Clemmons need to persuade?
About 900 voters who lean Linda Sánchez today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,801 persuadable voters leaning Linda Sánchez.
When does early voting start in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)