Upset Brief · CA-42 · Brian Burley (R) vs. Robert Garcia (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.8-point national wave.

11%
odds today
17%
odds with the plan
22,512
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Huntington Beach
    Starting line Burley +12. 2.2% split their ticket. About 27,845 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +2,216
  2. 02
    Newport Beach
    Starting line Burley +23. 3.7% split their ticket. About 8,231 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +1,244
  3. 03
    Long Beach
    Starting line Garcia +41. 1.6% split their ticket.
    +820
  4. 04
    Costa Mesa
    Starting line Garcia +3. 2.1% split their ticket.
    +444
  5. 05
    Seal Beach
    Starting line Garcia +1. 3.1% split their ticket.
    +185
  6. 06
    Santa Ana
    Starting line Garcia +22. 1.0% split their ticket.
    +42

The top 10 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,780 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Garcia today.
    +2,780
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 36,076 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Burley's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,737
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Burley's way.
    +494

Plus a national shift of 6.8 points of margin (17,501 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Burley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Garcia.
  2. In Huntington Beach and Newport Beach, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 6.8 points toward Burley's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    344 precincts, R² 0.989, 94 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,314 to 12,286 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Burley $5,509 cash on hand; Garcia $1,381,467.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    29,703 households, 89,108 dials, about 4,669 live conversations: an estimated $9,933 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,933 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.