A long shot on the math: it takes a 50.0-point national wave.

1. 01
   Los Angeles

   Starting line Waters +61. 3.7% split their ticket.
   +342
2. 02
   Inglewood

   Starting line Waters +72. 2.7% split their ticket.
   +331
3. 03
   Unincorporated Los Angeles County

   Starting line Waters +56. 2.5% split their ticket.
   +290
4. 04
   Compton

   Starting line Waters +63. 3.7% split their ticket.
   +235
5. 05
   Torrance

   Starting line Waters +18. 1.8% split their ticket.
   +217
6. 06
   Hawthorne

   Starting line Waters +47. 2.0% split their ticket.
   +165

The top 8 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  1,558 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Waters today.
  +1,558
• M
  Mobilize

  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Morales's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +144

Plus a national shift of 50 points of margin (63,783 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Morales wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Waters.
2. It would take a national shift of about 50.0 points toward Morales's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  249 precincts, R² 0.983, 86 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -78,455 to -49,120 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Morales no FEC totals reported; Waters $269,669.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  2,433 households, 7,300 dials, about 383 live conversations: an estimated $1,509 at published rates.