California · U.S. House · District 43 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Cristian Morales.

Waters starts 51.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,702 net votes toward Morales, a 1.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 50.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Morales the one standing if one comes.

65,485

net votes between Morales and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

51.3 pts

Waters lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 50.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find65,485

WhereLos Angeles, Inglewood, Unincorporated Los Angeles County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Waters +51.3. Cristian Morales needs 65,485 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

63,797 votes.

That is half of the 127,592 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Morales stands today, and what is missing:

30,228 Cristian Morales baseline

95,713 Maxine Waters baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Morales wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Morales short by 63,744.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,558

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,558

Who. 1,558 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Waters today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Morales needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Waters.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Morales's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

144

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 410

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Morales's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 1,702 net votes against a gap of 65,485. Still 63,783 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 50 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

8 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Los Angelespersuade
Starting line Waters +61. 3.7% split their ticket.
+342
02
Inglewoodpersuade
Starting line Waters +72. 2.7% split their ticket.
+331
03
Unincorporated Los Angeles Countypersuade
Starting line Waters +56. 2.5% split their ticket.
+290
04
Comptonpersuade
Starting line Waters +63. 3.7% split their ticket.
+235
05
Torrancepersuade
Starting line Waters +18. 1.8% split their ticket.
+217
06
Hawthornepersuade
Starting line Waters +47. 2.0% split their ticket.
+165
07
Gardenapersuade
Starting line Waters +45. 1.1% split their ticket.
+90
08
Lawndalepersuade
Starting line Waters +32. 0.9% split their ticket.
+32

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Los Angeles carries the most.

Los Angeles gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 342. It sits at Waters +61 on our starting line, and 3.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 1,702 net votes. The gap is 65,485. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.3 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Morales's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 249
Slope: 1.017
R²: 0.983
Residual SD: 2.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 86

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Morales's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Morales, with Waters, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,558 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Morales is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 48.9 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 47.3 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 56.7 points.

Morales wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Waters.
The national environment moves about 50.0 points toward Morales's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

383 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 7,300 dials to 2,433 households, before the last ballot is cast.

2,433

households on the target list

7,300

dials across three attempts

383

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,509 at our published rates: 2,433 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Cristian Morales (R)

Guatemala-born manufacturing executive with more than 20 years in the automotive, aerospace and defense industries. He holds a management degree from Purdue University and a graduate degree in industrial and labor relations from Cornell University.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Maxine Waters (D)

U.S. Representative since 1991 and the senior Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, which she chaired from 2019 to 2023. She previously served seven terms in the California State Assembly.

Cash on hand $269,669 and $863,683 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Waters +51.3. Cristian Morales needs 65,485 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Cristian Morales win California's 43rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,702 net votes; the gap is 65,485. The rest would take a 50.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Cristian Morales needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Los Angeles, Inglewood, Unincorporated Los Angeles County, Compton, Torrance. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Cristian Morales need to persuade?

About 779 voters who lean Maxine Waters today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,558 persuadable voters leaning Maxine Waters.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.