A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.5-point national wave.

1. 01
   Orange

   Starting line Correa +6. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +233
2. 02
   Santa Ana

   Starting line Correa +29. 1.0% split their ticket.
   +232
3. 03
   Anaheim

   Starting line Correa +16. 0.5% split their ticket.
   +207
4. 04
   Placentia

   Starting line Pan +9. 2.7% split their ticket.
   +148
5. 05
   Fullerton

   Starting line Correa +15. 0.9% split their ticket.
   +86
6. 06
   Stanton

   Starting line Correa +9. 1.7% split their ticket.
   +42

The top 7 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  710 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Correa today.
  +710
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Pan's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Pan's way.
  +261

Plus a national shift of 14.5 points of margin (20,161 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Pan wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Correa.
2. The national environment moves about 14.5 points toward Pan's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  361 precincts, R² 0.954, 72 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -36,111 to -4,212 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Pan $6,238 cash on hand; Correa $2,479,554.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  1,494 households, 4,483 dials, about 235 live conversations: an estimated $927 at published rates.