Upset Brief · CA-47 · Jenny Rae Le Roux (R) vs. Dave Min (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.1-point national wave.

17%
odds today
23%
odds with the plan
17,609
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Irvine
    Starting line Min +20. 1.5% split their ticket.
    +868
  2. 02
    Unincorporated Orange County
    Starting line Le Roux +14. 4.4% split their ticket. About 3,602 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +495
  3. 03
    Laguna Niguel
    Starting line Le Roux +4. 2.5% split their ticket.
    +439
  4. 04
    Lake Forest
    Starting line even. 2.2% split their ticket.
    +423
  5. 05
    Newport Beach
    Starting line Le Roux +20. 3.8% split their ticket. About 2,883 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +409
  6. 06
    Dana Point
    Starting line Le Roux +11. 3.0% split their ticket.
    +271

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,023 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Min today.
    +3,023
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 6,485 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Le Roux's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +349
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Le Roux's way.
    +630

Plus a national shift of 5.1 points of margin (13,607 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Le Roux wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Min.
  2. In Newport Beach and Unincorporated Orange County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.1 points toward Le Roux's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    375 precincts, R² 0.973, 100 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -44,244 to 17,570 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Le Roux $128,533 cash on hand; Min $1,889,360.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    9,889 households, 29,667 dials, about 1,555 live conversations: an estimated $4,659 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,659 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.