California · U.S. House · District 47 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Jenny Rae Le Roux.

Min starts 6.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,002 net votes toward Le Roux, a 1.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 5.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Le Roux the one standing if one comes.

17,609

net votes between Le Roux and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

6.6 pts

Min lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.1-point national wave.

Odds today17%

Odds with the plan23%

Net votes to find17,609

WhereIrvine, Unincorporated Orange County, Laguna Niguel

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Min +6.6. Jenny Rae Le Roux needs 17,609 net votes. Odds 17% today, 23% with the plan.

The number

133,077 votes.

That is half of the 266,153 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Le Roux stands today, and what is missing:

122,298 Jenny Rae Le Roux baseline

139,907 Dave Min baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

17% today. 23% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Le Roux wins in

23%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

17%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Le Roux short by 13,574.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,023

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,023

Who. 3,023 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Min today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Le Roux needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Min.

Mobilize

349

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 6,485

Who. At least 6,485 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Le Roux's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

630

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,800

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Le Roux's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,002 net votes against a gap of 17,609. Still 13,607 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 5.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Irvinepersuade
Starting line Min +20. 1.5% split their ticket.
+868
02
Unincorporated Orange Countypersuade
Starting line Le Roux +14. 4.4% split their ticket. About 3,602 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+495
03
Laguna Niguelpersuade
Starting line Le Roux +4. 2.5% split their ticket.
+439
04
Lake Forestpersuade
Starting line even. 2.2% split their ticket.
+423
05
Newport Beachmobilize
Starting line Le Roux +20. 3.8% split their ticket. About 2,883 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+409
06
Dana Pointpersuade
Starting line Le Roux +11. 3.0% split their ticket.
+271
07
Aliso Viejopersuade
Starting line Min +5. 2.4% split their ticket.
+260
08
Laguna Beachpersuade
Starting line Min +21. 3.3% split their ticket.
+236
09
Tustinpersuade
Starting line Min +13. 1.7% split their ticket.
+231
10
Laguna Hillspersuade
Starting line Le Roux +4. 2.2% split their ticket.
+165
11
Laguna Woodspersuade
Starting line Min +13. 2.1% split their ticket.
+137
12
Mission Viejopersuade
Starting line Le Roux +4. 2.2% split their ticket.
+68

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Irvine carries the most.

Irvine gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 868. It sits at Min +20 on our starting line, and 1.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Newport Beach is a turnout race.

Le Roux's side leads Newport Beach by about 20 points on our starting line, and it cast about 2,883 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 193 votes there.

Unincorporated Orange County splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Unincorporated Orange County has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Min had $1.89 million in cash on hand to Le Roux's $129K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Le Roux's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 375
Slope: 1.054
R²: 0.973
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 100

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Le Roux's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Le Roux, with Min, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,023 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 6,485 of them live where Le Roux is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.1 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 5.6 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 5.3 points.

Le Roux wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Min.
In Newport Beach and Unincorporated Orange County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 5.1 points toward Le Roux's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,555 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 29,667 dials to 9,889 households, before the last ballot is cast.

9,889

households on the target list

30K

dials across three attempts

1,555

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,659 at our published rates: 9,889 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jenny Rae Le Roux (R)

Entrepreneur and author who bought the consulting career firm Management Consulted in 2012 and grew it into a consulting services business. She holds a B.A. in economics from the University of Virginia and an MBA from Columbia Business School.

Cash on hand $128,533 and $375,883 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Dave Min (D)

U.S. Representative since 2025 who represented the 37th district in the California State Senate from 2020 to 2024 and was a law professor at UC Irvine. The son of Korean immigrants, he graduated from the University of Pennsylvania (Wharton) and Harvard Law School and began his career as an SEC enforcement attorney.

Cash on hand $1,889,360 and $3,381,161 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Min +6.6. Jenny Rae Le Roux needs 17,609 net votes. Odds 17% today, 23% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jenny Rae Le Roux win California's 47th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,002 net votes; the gap is 17,609. The rest would take a 5.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Jenny Rae Le Roux needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Irvine, Unincorporated Orange County, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Newport Beach. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jenny Rae Le Roux need to persuade?

About 1,512 voters who lean Dave Min today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,023 persuadable voters leaning Dave Min.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.