Upset Brief · CA-51 · Ricardo Cabrera (R) vs. Sara Jacobs (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.5-point national wave.

1%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
41,238
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Unincorporated San Diego County
    Starting line Cabrera +24. 1.8% split their ticket. About 28,508 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +3,144
  2. 02
    San Diego
    Starting line Jacobs +43. 1.1% split their ticket.
    +879
  3. 03
    El Cajon
    Starting line Cabrera +12. 0.6% split their ticket. About 14,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +692
  4. 04
    La Mesa
    Starting line Jacobs +23. 1.6% split their ticket.
    +211
  5. 05
    Lemon Grove
    Starting line Jacobs +20. 1.1% split their ticket.
    +51

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,639 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jacobs today.
    +1,639
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 43,035 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Cabrera's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,934
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Cabrera's way.
    +404

Plus a national shift of 14.5 points of margin (36,261 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Cabrera wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jacobs.
  2. In Unincorporated San Diego County and El Cajon, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 14.5 points toward Cabrera's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    471 precincts, R² 0.989, 75 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -65,428 to -7,271 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Cabrera no FEC totals reported; Jacobs $269,452.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    32,753 households, 98,258 dials, about 5,149 live conversations: an estimated $10,543 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $10,543 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.