What it would take for Ricardo Cabrera.
Jacobs starts 16.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,977 net votes toward Cabrera, a 2.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 14.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Cabrera the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.5-point national wave.
125,437 votes.
That is half of the 250,873 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Cabrera stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,639 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jacobs today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Cabrera needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Jacobs.
Who. At least 43,035 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Cabrera's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Cabrera's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 4,977 net votes against a gap of 41,238. Still 36,261 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 14.5 points that no campaign controls.
5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+3,144Unincorporated San Diego CountymobilizeStarting line Cabrera +24. 1.8% split their ticket. About 28,508 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+879San DiegopersuadeStarting line Jacobs +43. 1.1% split their ticket.
- 03+692El CajonmobilizeStarting line Cabrera +12. 0.6% split their ticket. About 14,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+211La MesapersuadeStarting line Jacobs +23. 1.6% split their ticket.
- 05+51Lemon GrovepersuadeStarting line Jacobs +20. 1.1% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Unincorporated San Diego County carries the most.
Unincorporated San Diego County gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 3,144. It sits at Cabrera +24 on our starting line, and 1.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
El Cajon is a turnout race.
Cabrera's side leads El Cajon by about 12 points on our starting line, and it cast about 14,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 582 votes there.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 4,977 net votes. The gap is 41,238. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.0 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Cabrera's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 471
- Slope
- 0.975
- R²
- 0.989
- Residual SD
- 3.6 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 75
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Cabrera's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 4Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Cabrera, with Jacobs, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 5 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,639 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 26Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 43,035 of them live where Cabrera is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 18.2 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 15.9 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 14.5 points.
- Cabrera wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jacobs.
- In Unincorporated San Diego County and El Cajon, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 14.5 points toward Cabrera's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
5,149 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 98,258 dials to 32,753 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $10,543 at our published rates: 32,753 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Ricardo Cabrera (R)
San Diego business owner running on term limits, affordability, anti-corruption reform and more opportunity for young entrepreneurs.
Sara Jacobs (D)
U.S. Representative since 2021 and the youngest member of California's congressional delegation. She previously worked in the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations during the Obama administration.
Cash on hand $269,452 and $1,639,893 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Jacobs +16.4. Ricardo Cabrera needs 41,238 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.
Questions
Can Ricardo Cabrera win California's 51st Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,977 net votes; the gap is 41,238. The rest would take a 14.5-point national shift.
Where are the votes Ricardo Cabrera needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Unincorporated San Diego County, San Diego, El Cajon, La Mesa, Lemon Grove. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Ricardo Cabrera need to persuade?
About 820 voters who lean Sara Jacobs today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,639 persuadable voters leaning Sara Jacobs.
When does early voting start in California in 2026?
California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote
- California Statewide Database (precinct results and block conversions)
- Proposition 50 congressional districts (AB 604)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)