Upset Brief · CA-09 · John McBride (R) vs. Josh Harder (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.5-point national wave.

5%
odds today
7%
odds with the plan
20,892
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Stockton
    Starting line Harder +16. 2.0% split their ticket.
    +608
  2. 02
    Ripon
    Starting line McBride +43. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,957 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +354
  3. 03
    Manteca
    Starting line McBride +5. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +317
  4. 04
    Tracy
    Starting line Harder +12. 2.0% split their ticket.
    +289
  5. 05
    Unincorporated San Joaquin County
    Starting line McBride +10. 1.9% split their ticket.
    +261
  6. 06
    Lodi
    Starting line McBride +14. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,655 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +131

The top 10 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,511 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harder today.
    +1,511
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,088 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where McBride's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +379
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean McBride's way.
    +343

Plus a national shift of 10.5 points of margin (18,659 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. McBride wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harder.
  2. In Ripon and Lodi, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 10.5 points toward McBride's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    352 precincts, R² 0.981, 70 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -39,320 to 2,027 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    McBride $18,738 cash on hand; Harder $4,739,488.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    5,582 households, 16,745 dials, about 877 live conversations: an estimated $2,907 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $2,907 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.