California · U.S. House · District 9 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for John McBride.

Harder starts 11.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 2,233 net votes toward McBride, a 1.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 10.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes McBride the one standing if one comes.

20,892

net votes between McBride and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

11.8 pts

Harder lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.5-point national wave.

Odds today5%

Odds with the plan7%

Net votes to find20,892

WhereStockton, Ripon, Manteca

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Harder +11.8. John McBride needs 20,892 net votes. Odds 5% today, 7% with the plan.

The number

88,491 votes.

That is half of the 176,980 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where McBride stands today, and what is missing:

76,928 John McBride baseline

97,820 Josh Harder baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

5% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

McBride wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: McBride short by 18,583.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,511

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,511

Who. 1,511 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harder today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. McBride needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Harder.

Mobilize

379

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,088

Who. At least 4,088 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where McBride's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

343

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 979

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean McBride's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 2,233 net votes against a gap of 20,892. Still 18,659 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 10.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

10 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Stocktonpersuade
Starting line Harder +16. 2.0% split their ticket.
+608
02
Riponmobilize
Starting line McBride +43. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,957 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+354
03
Mantecapersuade
Starting line McBride +5. 2.4% split their ticket.
+317
04
Tracypersuade
Starting line Harder +12. 2.0% split their ticket.
+289
05
Unincorporated San Joaquin Countypersuade
Starting line McBride +10. 1.9% split their ticket.
+261
06
Lodimobilize
Starting line McBride +14. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,655 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+131
07
Antiochpersuade
Starting line Harder +34. 0.6% split their ticket.
+121
08
Pittsburgpersuade
Starting line Harder +43. 0.8% split their ticket.
+83
09
Oakleypersuade
Starting line Harder +13. 1.2% split their ticket.
+37
10
Unincorporated Contra Costa Countymobilize
Starting line McBride +12. 2.7% split their ticket. About 476 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+33

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Stockton carries the most.

Stockton gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 608. It sits at Harder +16 on our starting line, and 2.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Ripon is a turnout race.

McBride's side leads Ripon by about 43 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,957 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 287 votes there.

Lodi splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Lodi has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Harder had $4.74 million in cash on hand to McBride's $19K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where McBride's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 352
Slope: 1.003
R²: 0.981
Residual SD: 3.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 70

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: McBride's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with McBride, with Harder, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,511 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 4,088 of them live where McBride is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 11.5 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 11.7 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 11.7 points.

McBride wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harder.
In Ripon and Lodi, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 10.5 points toward McBride's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

877 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 16,745 dials to 5,582 households, before the last ballot is cast.

5,582

households on the target list

17K

dials across three attempts

877

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,907 at our published rates: 5,582 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

John McBride (R)

Athletic performance coach and former strength and conditioning coach at the University of the Pacific, a certified strength and conditioning specialist and USA Weightlifting coach.

Cash on hand $18,738 and $52,178 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Josh Harder (D)

U.S. Representative since 2019 and a fifth-generation Central Valley native whose great-great-grandfather started a peach farm in Manteca, he is a Modesto High and Stanford graduate with an MBA and MPP from Harvard who taught business at Modesto Junior College.

Cash on hand $4,739,488 and $4,083,528 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Harder +11.8. John McBride needs 20,892 net votes. Odds 5% today, 7% with the plan.

Questions

Can John McBride win California's 9th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 2,233 net votes; the gap is 20,892. The rest would take a 10.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes John McBride needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Stockton, Ripon, Manteca, Tracy, Unincorporated San Joaquin County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does John McBride need to persuade?

About 756 voters who lean Josh Harder today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,511 persuadable voters leaning Josh Harder.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.