Upset Brief · FL-01 · Gay Valimont (D) vs. Jimmy Patronis (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.7-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
124,404
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 98 (Escambia County)
    Starting line Valimont +54. 2.3% split their ticket. About 595 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +131
  2. 02
    Precinct 28 (Escambia County)
    Starting line Valimont +34. 2.6% split their ticket. About 807 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +117
  3. 03
    Precinct 14 (Escambia County)
    Starting line Valimont +66. 3.6% split their ticket. About 359 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +98
  4. 04
    Precinct 34 (Escambia County)
    Starting line Valimont +39. 2.7% split their ticket. About 512 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +82
  5. 05
    Precinct 103 (Escambia County)
    Starting line Valimont +35. 2.7% split their ticket. About 555 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +80
  6. 06
    Precinct 34 (Santa Rosa County)
    Starting line Patronis +51. 2.5% split their ticket.
    +80

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,944 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Patronis today.
    +2,944
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,856 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Valimont's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +765
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Valimont's way.
    +340

Plus a national shift of 40.7 points of margin (120,355 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Valimont wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Patronis.
  2. In Precinct 98 (Escambia County) and Precinct 28 (Escambia County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 40.7 points toward Valimont's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    188 precincts, R² 0.996, 28 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -154,106 to -86,165 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Valimont $21,814 cash on hand; Patronis $935,302.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    8,773 households, 26,320 dials, about 1,379 live conversations: an estimated $4,133 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,133 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.