Florida · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Gay Valimont.

Patronis starts 42.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,049 net votes toward Valimont, a 1.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 40.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Valimont the one standing if one comes.

124,404

net votes between Valimont and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

42.1 pts

Patronis lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find124,404

WherePrecinct 98 (Escambia County), Precinct 28 (Escambia County), Precinct 14 (Escambia County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Patronis +42.1. Gay Valimont needs 124,404 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

147,807 votes.

That is half of the 295,612 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Valimont stands today, and what is missing:

84,003 Gay Valimont baseline

208,407 Jimmy Patronis baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Valimont wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Valimont short by 120,353.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,944

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,944

Who. 2,944 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Patronis today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Valimont needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Patronis.

Mobilize

765

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,856

Who. At least 5,856 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Valimont's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

340

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 970

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Valimont's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,049 net votes against a gap of 124,404. Still 120,355 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 40.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 24% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 98 (Escambia County)mobilize
Starting line Valimont +54. 2.3% split their ticket. About 595 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+131
02
Precinct 28 (Escambia County)mobilize
Starting line Valimont +34. 2.6% split their ticket. About 807 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+117
03
Precinct 14 (Escambia County)mobilize
Starting line Valimont +66. 3.6% split their ticket. About 359 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+98
04
Precinct 34 (Escambia County)mobilize
Starting line Valimont +39. 2.7% split their ticket. About 512 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+82
05
Precinct 103 (Escambia County)mobilize
Starting line Valimont +35. 2.7% split their ticket. About 555 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+80
06
Precinct 34 (Santa Rosa County)persuade
Starting line Patronis +51. 2.5% split their ticket.
+80
07
Precinct 11 (Okaloosa County)persuade
Starting line Patronis +25. 2.7% split their ticket.
+79
08
Precinct 48 (Escambia County)mobilize
Starting line Valimont +73. 4.1% split their ticket. About 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+72
09
Precinct 56 (Escambia County)mobilize
Starting line Valimont +23. 1.5% split their ticket. About 760 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+71
10
Precinct 22 (Santa Rosa County)persuade
Starting line Patronis +41. 3.6% split their ticket.
+62
11
Precinct 33 (Okaloosa County)persuade
Starting line Patronis +54. 3.2% split their ticket.
+57
12
Precinct 104 (Escambia County)mobilize
Starting line Valimont +23. 3.3% split their ticket. About 517 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+57

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 98 (Escambia County) carries the most.

Precinct 98 (Escambia County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 131. It sits at Valimont +54 on our starting line, and 2.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 28 (Escambia County) is a turnout race.

Valimont's side leads Precinct 28 (Escambia County) by about 34 points on our starting line, and it cast about 807 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 93 votes there.

Precinct 48 (Escambia County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 48 (Escambia County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Patronis had $935K in cash on hand to Valimont's $22K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Valimont's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 188
Slope: 0.968
R²: 0.996
Residual SD: 1.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 28

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Valimont's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Valimont, with Patronis, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,944 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,856 of them live where Valimont is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 37.2 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 40.8 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 45.0 points.

Valimont wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Patronis.
In Precinct 98 (Escambia County) and Precinct 28 (Escambia County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 40.7 points toward Valimont's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,379 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 26,320 dials to 8,773 households, before the last ballot is cast.

8,773

households on the target list

26K

dials across three attempts

1,379

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,133 at our published rates: 8,773 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Gay Valimont (D)

Athletic trainer and health care professional from the Pensacola area who worked in sports medicine in Atlanta, including with the Atlanta Falcons; she holds a bachelor's degree from Georgia Southern University and a master's in education from Troy State University.

Cash on hand $21,814 and $174,309 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jimmy Patronis (R)

U.S. representative since April 2025 and previously Florida chief financial officer (2017 to 2025), a member of the Florida Public Service Commission (2015 to 2017) and a state representative from Panama City (2006 to 2014).

Cash on hand $935,302 and $3,789,738 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Tyler L. Davis (NPA)

Pensacola State College graduate who has worked in the financial industry for more than a decade and founded the nonprofit A Pensacola Perspective, focused on volunteerism and civic engagement.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Patronis +42.1. Gay Valimont needs 124,404 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Gay Valimont win Florida's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,049 net votes; the gap is 124,404. The rest would take a 40.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Gay Valimont needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 98 (Escambia County), Precinct 28 (Escambia County), Precinct 14 (Escambia County), Precinct 34 (Escambia County), Precinct 103 (Escambia County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Gay Valimont need to persuade?

About 1,472 voters who lean Jimmy Patronis today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,944 persuadable voters leaning Jimmy Patronis.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.