Upset Brief · FL-11 · James Pericola (D) vs. Joe Strada (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.5-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
69,751
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 205 (Orange County)
    Starting line Pericola +22. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,910 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +184
  2. 02
    Precinct 119 (Orange County)
    Starting line Pericola +16. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +129
  3. 03
    Precinct 422 (Orange County)
    Starting line Pericola +18. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +120
  4. 04
    Precinct 124 (Orange County)
    Starting line Pericola +21. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,138 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +111
  5. 05
    Precinct 145 (Lake County)
    Starting line Strada +18. 2.6% split their ticket.
    +83
  6. 06
    Precinct 105 (Orange County)
    Starting line Pericola +30. 2.2% split their ticket. About 669 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +81

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,112 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Strada today.
    +4,112
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 14,548 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pericola's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +853
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pericola's way.
    +419

Plus a national shift of 19.5 points of margin (64,366 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Pericola wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Strada.
  2. In Precinct 205 (Orange County) and Precinct 119 (Orange County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 19.5 points toward Pericola's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    160 precincts, R² 0.988, 24 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -102,451 to -26,741 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Pericola $32,231 cash on hand; Strada $2,248,903.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,540 households, 49,619 dials, about 2,600 live conversations: an estimated $6,558 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,558 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.