Florida · U.S. House · District 11 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for James Pericola.

Q: Can James Pericola win Florida's 11th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,384 net votes; the gap is 69,751. The rest would take a 19.5-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes James Pericola needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 205 (Orange County), Precinct 119 (Orange County), Precinct 422 (Orange County), Precinct 124 (Orange County), Precinct 145 (Lake County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does James Pericola need to persuade?

About 2,056 voters who lean Joe Strada today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,112 persuadable voters leaning Joe Strada.

Q: When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Strada starts 21.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 5,384 net votes toward Pericola, a 1.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 19.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Pericola the one standing if one comes.

69,751

net votes between Pericola and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

21.1 pts

Strada lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find69,751

WherePrecinct 205 (Orange County), Precinct 119 (Orange County), Precinct 422 (Orange County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Strada +21.1. James Pericola needs 69,751 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

165,231 votes.

That is half of the 330,460 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Pericola stands today, and what is missing:

128,926 James Pericola baseline

198,677 Joe Strada baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Pericola wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Pericola short by 64,415.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,112

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,112

Who. 4,112 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Strada today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Pericola needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Strada.

Mobilize

853

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,548

Who. At least 14,548 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pericola's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

419

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,198

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pericola's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 5,384 net votes against a gap of 69,751. Still 64,367 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 19.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 21% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 205 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Pericola +22. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,910 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+184
02
Precinct 119 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Pericola +16. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+129
03
Precinct 422 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Pericola +18. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+120
04
Precinct 124 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Pericola +21. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,138 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+111
05
Precinct 145 (Lake County)persuade
Starting line Strada +18. 2.6% split their ticket.
+83
06
Precinct 105 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Pericola +30. 2.2% split their ticket. About 669 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+81
07
Precinct 425 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Pericola +17. 3.4% split their ticket. About 921 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+78
08
Precinct 424 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Pericola +20. 2.2% split their ticket. About 878 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+77
09
Precinct 111 (Sumter County)persuade
Starting line Strada +40. 2.3% split their ticket.
+77
10
Precinct 131 (Orange County)persuade
Starting line Strada +2. 3.6% split their ticket.
+68
11
Precinct 130 (Sumter County)persuade
Starting line Strada +41. 2.7% split their ticket.
+66
12
Precinct 209 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Pericola +12. 3.3% split their ticket. About 812 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+66

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 205 (Orange County) carries the most.

Precinct 205 (Orange County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 184. It sits at Pericola +22 on our starting line, and 2.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 119 (Orange County) is a turnout race.

Pericola's side leads Precinct 119 (Orange County) by about 16 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 99 votes there.

Precinct 131 (Orange County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 131 (Orange County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Strada had $2.25 million in cash on hand to Pericola's $32K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Pericola's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 160
Slope: 0.985
R²: 0.988
Residual SD: 2.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 24

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Pericola's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Pericola, with Strada, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,112 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 14,548 of them live where Pericola is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 15.7 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 16.6 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 21.6 points.

Pericola wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Strada.
In Precinct 205 (Orange County) and Precinct 119 (Orange County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 19.5 points toward Pericola's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

2,600 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 49,619 dials to 16,540 households, before the last ballot is cast.

17K

households on the target list

50K

dials across three attempts

2,600

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,558 at our published rates: 16,540 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

James Pericola (D)

Attorney raised in Central Florida who began his career working for U.S. Sen. Bob Graham and has spent more than 30 years in and around public service; he holds bachelor's and law degrees from the Catholic University of America.

Cash on hand $32,231 and $119,754 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Joe Strada (R)

Central Florida businessman and Lyman High School graduate running as a first-time candidate.

Cash on hand $2,248,903 and $5,248,640 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Ralph Groves (L)

Defense analyst.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Strada +21.1. James Pericola needs 69,751 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can James Pericola win Florida's 11th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,384 net votes; the gap is 69,751. The rest would take a 19.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes James Pericola needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 205 (Orange County), Precinct 119 (Orange County), Precinct 422 (Orange County), Precinct 124 (Orange County), Precinct 145 (Lake County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does James Pericola need to persuade?

About 2,056 voters who lean Joe Strada today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,112 persuadable voters leaning Joe Strada.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.