Upset Brief · FL-13 · Leela Gray (D) vs. Anna Paulina Luna (R), incumbent

Gray can win. The math closes using 85 percent of what history allows.

23%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
12,114
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 140 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Gray +22. 2.2% split their ticket. About 771 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +201
  2. 02
    Precinct 627 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Luna +10. 3.0% split their ticket.
    +193
  3. 03
    Precinct 162 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Gray +28. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,778 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +174
  4. 04
    Precinct 537 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Gray +22. 2.5% split their ticket. About 566 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +155
  5. 05
    Precinct 637 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Luna +8. 1.9% split their ticket.
    +154
  6. 06
    Precinct 322 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Luna +1. 2.7% split their ticket.
    +151

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 6 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 13,636 leaning Luna today.
    +11,548
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 9,853 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gray's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +656
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gray's way.
    +516
What has to be true
  1. Gray wins 42 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Luna.
  2. In Precinct 162 (Pinellas County) and Precinct 140 (Pinellas County), 30 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 85 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    212 precincts, R² 0.958, 27 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,650 to 28,655 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Gray $683,295 cash on hand; Luna $1,474,124.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    22,085 households, 66,255 dials, about 3,472 live conversations: an estimated $7,659 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,659 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.