Florida · U.S. House · District 13 · November 3, 2026

How Leela Gray wins.

Luna starts 3.7 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Gray needs 12,114 net votes, and the math closes using 85 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 140 (Pinellas County), Precinct 627 (Pinellas County) and Precinct 162 (Pinellas County).

12,114

net votes between Gray and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

3.7 pts

Luna lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

Gray can win. The math closes using 85 percent of what history allows.

Odds today23%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find12,114

WherePrecinct 140 (Pinellas County), Precinct 627 (Pinellas County), Precinct 162 (Pinellas County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Luna +3.7. Leela Gray needs 12,114 net votes. Odds 23% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

164,939 votes.

That is half of the 329,877 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Gray stands today, and what is missing:

157,104 Leela Gray baseline

169,217 Anna Paulina Luna baseline

Starting line: Luna +3.7 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

23% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Gray wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

23%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves85%

The plan on this page sits at 85%. Median outcome at this setting: Gray by 452.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

12K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,636

Who. Ticket splitters and the 6 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 13,636 leaning Luna today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Gray needs to win 42 percent of the ones now leaning Luna.

Mobilize

656

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 9,853

Who. At least 9,853 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gray's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

516

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,740

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gray's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 12,720 net votes against a gap of 12,114. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 15% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 140 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Gray +22. 2.2% split their ticket. About 771 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+201
02
Precinct 627 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Luna +10. 3.0% split their ticket.
+193
03
Precinct 162 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Gray +28. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,778 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+174
04
Precinct 537 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Gray +22. 2.5% split their ticket. About 566 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+155
05
Precinct 637 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Luna +8. 1.9% split their ticket.
+154
06
Precinct 322 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Luna +1. 2.7% split their ticket.
+151
07
Precinct 540 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Luna +10. 1.9% split their ticket.
+151
08
Precinct 067 (Pasco County)persuade
Starting line Luna +20. 2.1% split their ticket.
+150
09
Precinct 526 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Gray +1. 1.6% split their ticket.
+149
10
Precinct 160 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Luna +4. 3.3% split their ticket.
+142
11
Precinct 309 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Luna +16. 2.1% split their ticket.
+141
12
Precinct 259 (Pinellas County)persuade
Starting line Luna +1. 2.1% split their ticket.
+140

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 140 (Pinellas County) carries the most.

Precinct 140 (Pinellas County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 201. It sits at Gray +22 on our starting line, and 2.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 162 (Pinellas County) is a turnout race.

Gray's side leads Precinct 162 (Pinellas County) by about 28 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,778 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 162 votes there.

Precinct 160 (Pinellas County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 160 (Pinellas County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Luna had $1.47 million in cash on hand to Gray's $683K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Gray's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 212
Slope: 0.996
R²: 0.958
Residual SD: 2.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 27

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Gray's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Gray, with Luna, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,548 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 9,853 of them live where Gray is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 13.3 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 11.2 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 15.7 points.

Gray wins 42 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Luna.
In Precinct 162 (Pinellas County) and Precinct 140 (Pinellas County), 30 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 85 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

3,472 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 66,255 dials to 22,085 households, before the last ballot is cast.

22K

households on the target list

66K

dials across three attempts

3,472

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,659 at our published rates: 22,085 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Leela Gray (D)

Retired U.S. Army brigadier general who served 30 years in uniform (1988 to 2018); she holds a bachelor's degree from Elon University, a master's from the U.S. Army War College and a law degree from Stetson University College of Law.

Cash on hand $683,295 and $1,223,069 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Anna Paulina Luna (R)

U.S. representative since 2023 and a U.S. Air Force veteran who served as an airfield management specialist from 2009 to 2014, earning the Air Force Achievement Medal; she graduated from the University of West Florida and is the first Mexican-American woman elected to Congress from Florida.

Cash on hand $1,474,124 and $3,233,312 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Tony D'Arrigo (NPA)

Tampa small business owner and hospitality management consultant who owns and operates Two Step Entertainment, working with local creators, musicians and artists.

Cash on hand $25,681 and $28,181 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Luna +3.7. Leela Gray needs 12,114 net votes. Odds 23% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Leela Gray win Florida's 13th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Leela Gray needs 12,114 net votes, and recent Florida results show about 15,020 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 85 percent of that.

Where are the votes Leela Gray needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 140 (Pinellas County), Precinct 627 (Pinellas County), Precinct 162 (Pinellas County), Precinct 537 (Pinellas County), Precinct 637 (Pinellas County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Leela Gray need to persuade?

About 5,774 voters who lean Anna Paulina Luna today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 42 percent of the 13,636 persuadable voters leaning Anna Paulina Luna.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.