Upset Brief · FL-14 · Mike Beltran (R) vs. Kathy Castor (D), incumbent

Beltran can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

3%
odds today
50%
odds with the plan
26,560
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 913 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Castor +18. 1.4% split their ticket.
    +484
  2. 02
    Precinct 944 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Castor +35. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +315
  3. 03
    Precinct 909 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Castor +3. 2.6% split their ticket.
    +306
  4. 04
    Precinct 821 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Castor +11. 2.7% split their ticket.
    +301
  5. 05
    Precinct 761 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Beltran +40. 1.8% split their ticket. About 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +296
  6. 06
    Precinct 908 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Castor +10. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +294

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 16 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 25,407 leaning Castor today.
    +25,407
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 12,467 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Beltran's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,029
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Beltran's way.
    +448
What has to be true
  1. Beltran wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Castor.
  2. In Precinct 761 (Hillsborough County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    233 precincts, R² 0.978, 49 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -25,497 to 27,502 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Beltran $1,939,864 cash on hand; Castor $1,744,723.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    44,547 households, 133,642 dials, about 7,003 live conversations: an estimated $13,235 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $13,235 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.