Florida · U.S. House · District 14 · November 3, 2026

How Mike Beltran wins.

Castor starts 9.5 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Beltran needs 26,560 net votes, and the math closes using 100 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 913 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 944 (Hillsborough County) and Precinct 909 (Hillsborough County).

26,560

net votes between Beltran and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

9.5 pts

Castor lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

Beltran can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

Odds today3%

Odds with the plan50%

Net votes to find26,560

WherePrecinct 913 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 944 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 909 (Hillsborough County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Castor +9.5. Mike Beltran needs 26,560 net votes. Odds 3% today, 50% with the plan.

The number

139,443 votes.

That is half of the 278,885 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Beltran stands today, and what is missing:

124,723 Mike Beltran baseline

151,283 Kathy Castor baseline

Starting line: Castor +9.5 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

3% today. 50% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Beltran wins in

50%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Beltran short by 24.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

25K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 25,407

Who. Ticket splitters and the 16 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 25,407 leaning Castor today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Beltran needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Castor.

Mobilize

1,029

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 12,467

Who. At least 12,467 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Beltran's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

448

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,281

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Beltran's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 26,884 net votes against a gap of 26,560. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 14% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 913 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Castor +18. 1.4% split their ticket.
+484
02
Precinct 944 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Castor +35. 2.3% split their ticket.
+315
03
Precinct 909 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Castor +3. 2.6% split their ticket.
+306
04
Precinct 821 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Castor +11. 2.7% split their ticket.
+301
05
Precinct 761 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Beltran +40. 1.8% split their ticket. About 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+296
06
Precinct 908 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Castor +10. 2.4% split their ticket.
+294
07
Precinct 820 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Castor +2. 1.6% split their ticket.
+292
08
Precinct 929 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line even. 2.8% split their ticket.
+291
09
Precinct 813 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Beltran +3. 2.0% split their ticket.
+278
10
Precinct 946 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Castor +34. 1.5% split their ticket.
+276
11
Precinct 701 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Beltran +1. 2.0% split their ticket.
+276
12
Precinct 107 (Hillsborough County)persuade
Starting line Castor +13. 2.3% split their ticket.
+276

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 913 (Hillsborough County) carries the most.

Precinct 913 (Hillsborough County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 484. It sits at Castor +18 on our starting line, and 1.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 761 (Hillsborough County) is a turnout race.

Beltran's side leads Precinct 761 (Hillsborough County) by about 40 points on our starting line, and it cast about 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 95 votes there.

Precinct 929 (Hillsborough County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 929 (Hillsborough County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 2.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Beltran has the cash edge.

As of July 29, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Beltran had $1.94 million in cash on hand to Castor's $1.74 million. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Beltran's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 233
Slope: 0.943
R²: 0.978
Residual SD: 2.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 49

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Beltran's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Beltran, with Castor, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 25,407 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 12,467 of them live where Beltran is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.5 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 10.4 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 15.0 points.

Beltran wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Castor.
In Precinct 761 (Hillsborough County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

7,003 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 133,642 dials to 44,547 households, before the last ballot is cast.

45K

households on the target list

134K

dials across three attempts

7,003

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $13,235 at our published rates: 44,547 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Mike Beltran (R)

Attorney and former state representative for Hillsborough County's 70th District (2018 to 2024).

Cash on hand $1,939,864 and $2,116,747 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Kathy Castor (D)

U.S. representative for Tampa since 2007 and a lawyer who previously served on the Hillsborough County Commission (2002 to 2006).

Cash on hand $1,744,723 and $2,337,999 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Brian Lambert (L)

Cash on hand $100 and $10,500 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Salomon Hernandez Sr. (Wri)

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Keith Varian (Wri)

Construction worker born in Albany, New York, who attended Hudson Valley Community College and runs as a political outsider.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Castor +9.5. Mike Beltran needs 26,560 net votes. Odds 3% today, 50% with the plan.

Questions

Can Mike Beltran win Florida's 14th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Mike Beltran needs 26,560 net votes, and recent Florida results show about 26,885 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 100 percent of that.

Where are the votes Mike Beltran needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 913 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 944 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 909 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 821 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 761 (Hillsborough County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Mike Beltran need to persuade?

About 12,704 voters who lean Kathy Castor today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 25,407 persuadable voters leaning Kathy Castor.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.