Upset Brief · FL-15 · Robert People (D) vs. Laurel Lee (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.8-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
63,600
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line People +58. 1.8% split their ticket. About 999 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +219
  2. 02
    Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line People +50. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +210
  3. 03
    Precinct 325 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line People +79. 3.4% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +187
  4. 04
    Precinct 321 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line People +70. 2.3% split their ticket. About 660 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +178
  5. 05
    Precinct 309 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line People +76. 2.1% split their ticket. About 521 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +152
  6. 06
    Precinct 327 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line People +66. 1.2% split their ticket. About 585 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +146

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,020 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lee today.
    +4,020
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 22,735 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where People's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,838
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean People's way.
    +516

Plus a national shift of 19.8 points of margin (56,226 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. People wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lee.
  2. In Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County) and Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 19.8 points toward People's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    197 precincts, R² 0.993, 37 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -88,741 to -23,153 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    People $3,474 cash on hand; Lee $1,960,682.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    22,252 households, 66,756 dials, about 3,498 live conversations: an estimated $7,717 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,717 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.