What it would take for Robert People.
Lee starts 22.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,374 net votes toward People, a 2.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 19.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes People the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.8-point national wave.
141,923 votes.
That is half of the 283,844 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where People stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 4,020 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lee today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. People needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Lee.
Who. At least 22,735 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where People's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean People's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 7,374 net votes against a gap of 63,600. Still 56,226 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 19.8 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 25% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+219Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +58. 1.8% split their ticket. About 999 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+210Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +50. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+187Precinct 325 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +79. 3.4% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+178Precinct 321 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +70. 2.3% split their ticket. About 660 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+152Precinct 309 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +76. 2.1% split their ticket. About 521 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+146Precinct 327 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +66. 1.2% split their ticket. About 585 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+140Precinct 341 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +49. 2.1% split their ticket. About 732 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+134Precinct 329 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +63. 1.8% split their ticket. About 534 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+132Precinct 617 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +61. 2.0% split their ticket. About 557 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+119Precinct 852 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +22. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,299 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+108Precinct 307 (Citrus County)persuadeStarting line Lee +39. 2.8% split their ticket.
- 12+106Precinct 308 (Hillsborough County)mobilizeStarting line People +63. 4.2% split their ticket. About 413 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County) carries the most.
Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 219. It sits at People +58 on our starting line, and 1.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County) is a turnout race.
People's side leads Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County) by about 50 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 196 votes there.
Precinct 308 (Hillsborough County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 308 (Hillsborough County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 29, 2026, Lee had $1.96 million in cash on hand to People's $3,474. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where People's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 197
- Slope
- 0.919
- R²
- 0.993
- Residual SD
- 2.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 37
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: People's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 24.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with People, with Lee, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,020 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 22,735 of them live where People is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 19.8 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 16.1 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 22.9 points.
- People wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lee.
- In Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County) and Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 19.8 points toward People's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,498 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 66,756 dials to 22,252 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,717 at our published rates: 22,252 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Robert People (D)
Retired U.S. Army veteran and writer.
Cash on hand $3,474 and $40,108 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.
Laurel Lee (R)
U.S. representative since 2023, former Florida secretary of state (2019 to 2022) and circuit judge in the Thirteenth Judicial Circuit (2013 to 2019).
Cash on hand $1,960,682 and $2,346,664 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.
Angie Boone (Wri)
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Lee +22.4. Robert People needs 63,600 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Robert People win Florida's 15th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,374 net votes; the gap is 63,600. The rest would take a 19.8-point national shift.
Where are the votes Robert People needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 325 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 321 (Hillsborough County), Precinct 309 (Hillsborough County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Robert People need to persuade?
About 2,010 voters who lean Laurel Lee today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,020 persuadable voters leaning Laurel Lee.
When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?
Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Florida Division of Elections, election results
- Florida Senate, 2026 congressional plan EOGPCRP2026 (block assignments)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2026
- Florida Politics: 793907 continuing the good work laurel lee to seek re election in cd 15
- Tampa Bay Times: Why a Democrat says he can beat Laurel Lee in Tampa congressional race
- Florida Politics: 794758 redistricting shuffle kimberly overman jumps from cd 15 to cd 12