Upset Brief · FL-16 · Kelly Kirschner (D) vs. Sydney Gruters (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.3-point national wave.

1%
odds today
3%
odds with the plan
50,447
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 120 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Kirschner +72. 2.0% split their ticket. About 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +195
  2. 02
    Precinct 105 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Kirschner +60. 1.9% split their ticket. About 629 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +157
  3. 03
    Precinct 101 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Kirschner +51. 2.1% split their ticket. About 732 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +154
  4. 04
    Precinct 119 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Kirschner +68. 2.0% split their ticket. About 544 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +144
  5. 05
    Precinct 203 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Kirschner +51. 1.6% split their ticket. About 517 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +109
  6. 06
    Precinct 224 (Pinellas County)
    Starting line Kirschner +78. 3.2% split their ticket. About 343 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +105

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,355 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gruters today.
    +3,355
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 16,904 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kirschner's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,614
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kirschner's way.
    +452

Plus a national shift of 13.3 points of margin (44,024 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Kirschner wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gruters.
  2. In Precinct 120 (Pinellas County) and Precinct 105 (Pinellas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 13.3 points toward Kirschner's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    216 precincts, R² 0.992, 35 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -82,381 to -5,671 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Kirschner $80,738 cash on hand; Gruters $622,381.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    17,186 households, 51,558 dials, about 2,702 live conversations: an estimated $6,814 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,814 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.