Florida · U.S. House · District 16 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Kelly Kirschner.

Gruters starts 15.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,421 net votes toward Kirschner, a 1.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 13.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Kirschner the one standing if one comes.

50,447

net votes between Kirschner and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

15.2 pts

Gruters lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.3-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan3%

Net votes to find50,447

WherePrecinct 120 (Pinellas County), Precinct 105 (Pinellas County), Precinct 101 (Pinellas County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Gruters +15.2. Kelly Kirschner needs 50,447 net votes. Odds 1% today, 3% with the plan.

The number

166,041 votes.

That is half of the 332,080 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kirschner stands today, and what is missing:

139,372 Kelly Kirschner baseline

189,819 Sydney Gruters baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Kirschner wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Kirschner short by 44,057.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,355

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,355

Who. 3,355 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gruters today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kirschner needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Gruters.

Mobilize

2,614

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 16,904

Who. At least 16,904 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kirschner's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

452

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,292

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kirschner's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,421 net votes against a gap of 50,447. Still 44,026 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 13.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 23% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 120 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +72. 2.0% split their ticket. About 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+195
02
Precinct 105 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +60. 1.9% split their ticket. About 629 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+157
03
Precinct 101 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +51. 2.1% split their ticket. About 732 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+154
04
Precinct 119 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +68. 2.0% split their ticket. About 544 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+144
05
Precinct 203 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +51. 1.6% split their ticket. About 517 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+109
06
Precinct 224 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +78. 3.2% split their ticket. About 343 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+105
07
Precinct 109 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +61. 1.7% split their ticket. About 420 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+103
08
Precinct 123 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +25. 1.1% split their ticket. About 938 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+102
09
Precinct 205 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +69. 2.3% split their ticket. About 366 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+100
10
Precinct 113 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +70. 1.7% split their ticket. About 363 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+98
11
Precinct 128 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +40. 1.7% split their ticket. About 542 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+93
12
Precinct 130 (Pinellas County)mobilize
Starting line Kirschner +24. 2.0% split their ticket. About 688 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+86

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 120 (Pinellas County) carries the most.

Precinct 120 (Pinellas County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 195. It sits at Kirschner +72 on our starting line, and 2.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 105 (Pinellas County) is a turnout race.

Kirschner's side leads Precinct 105 (Pinellas County) by about 60 points on our starting line, and it cast about 629 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 131 votes there.

Precinct 224 (Pinellas County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 224 (Pinellas County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Gruters had $622K in cash on hand to Kirschner's $81K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kirschner's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 216
Slope: 0.982
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 2.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 35

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kirschner's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kirschner, with Gruters, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,355 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 16,904 of them live where Kirschner is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 13.7 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 13.1 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 15.7 points.

Kirschner wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gruters.
In Precinct 120 (Pinellas County) and Precinct 105 (Pinellas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 13.3 points toward Kirschner's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

2,702 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 51,558 dials to 17,186 households, before the last ballot is cast.

17K

households on the target list

52K

dials across three attempts

2,702

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,814 at our published rates: 17,186 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Kelly Kirschner (D)

Former Sarasota mayor (2010 to 2011) and city commissioner (2007 to 2011) who later served as vice president and dean of executive and continuing education at Eckerd College and helped found the nonprofit UnidosNow.

Cash on hand $80,738 and $296,507 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Sydney Gruters (R)

Former executive director of the New College of Florida Foundation and former congressional staffer.

Cash on hand $622,381 and $1,087,683 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Mark Davis (NPA)

U.S. Air Force veteran (2005 to 2013), father and small business owner with experience in health care.

Cash on hand $3,204 and $51,311 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Gruters +15.2. Kelly Kirschner needs 50,447 net votes. Odds 1% today, 3% with the plan.

Questions

Can Kelly Kirschner win Florida's 16th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 6,421 net votes; the gap is 50,447. The rest would take a 13.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Kelly Kirschner needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 120 (Pinellas County), Precinct 105 (Pinellas County), Precinct 101 (Pinellas County), Precinct 119 (Pinellas County), Precinct 203 (Pinellas County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Kelly Kirschner need to persuade?

About 1,678 voters who lean Sydney Gruters today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,355 persuadable voters leaning Sydney Gruters.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.