Upset Brief · FL-17 · Matthew Montavon (D) vs. Greg Steube (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.5-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
85,885
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 115 (Sarasota County)
    Starting line Montavon +50. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,173 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +229
  2. 02
    Precinct 202 (Lee County)
    Starting line Steube +31. 3.5% split their ticket.
    +167
  3. 03
    Precinct 417 (Lee County)
    Starting line Montavon +28. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,168 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +139
  4. 04
    Precinct 512 (Lee County)
    Starting line Steube +44. 3.2% split their ticket.
    +91
  5. 05
    Precinct 535 (Sarasota County)
    Starting line Steube +22. 2.6% split their ticket.
    +76
  6. 06
    Precinct 201 (Sarasota County)
    Starting line Steube +15. 4.0% split their ticket.
    +73

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,622 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Steube today.
    +3,622
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,227 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Montavon's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +438
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Montavon's way.
    +330

Plus a national shift of 23.5 points of margin (81,495 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Montavon wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Steube.
  2. In Precinct 115 (Sarasota County) and Precinct 417 (Lee County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 23.5 points toward Montavon's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    197 precincts, R² 0.964, 36 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -121,245 to -41,169 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Montavon $23,859 cash on hand; Steube $2,083,868.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    8,566 households, 25,697 dials, about 1,347 live conversations: an estimated $4,035 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,035 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.