What it would take for Matthew Montavon.
Steube starts 24.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,390 net votes toward Montavon, a 1.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 23.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Montavon the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.5-point national wave.
173,608 votes.
That is half of the 347,215 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Montavon stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 3,622 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Steube today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Montavon needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Steube.
Who. At least 4,227 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Montavon's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Montavon's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 4,390 net votes against a gap of 85,885. Still 81,495 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 23.5 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 26% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+229Precinct 115 (Sarasota County)mobilizeStarting line Montavon +50. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,173 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+167Precinct 202 (Lee County)persuadeStarting line Steube +31. 3.5% split their ticket.
- 03+139Precinct 417 (Lee County)mobilizeStarting line Montavon +28. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,168 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+91Precinct 512 (Lee County)persuadeStarting line Steube +44. 3.2% split their ticket.
- 05+76Precinct 535 (Sarasota County)persuadeStarting line Steube +22. 2.6% split their ticket.
- 06+73Precinct 201 (Sarasota County)persuadeStarting line Steube +15. 4.0% split their ticket.
- 07+73Precinct 210 (Lee County)persuadeStarting line Steube +24. 3.5% split their ticket.
- 08+70Precinct 103 (Sarasota County)mobilizeStarting line Montavon +26. 1.9% split their ticket. About 647 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+67Precinct 209 (Sarasota County)persuadeStarting line Montavon +13. 2.1% split their ticket. About 609 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+59Precinct 408 (Lee County)persuadeStarting line Steube +31. 3.9% split their ticket.
- 11+56Precinct 231 (Sarasota County)persuadeStarting line Steube +11. 1.9% split their ticket.
- 12+50Precinct 415 (Sarasota County)persuadeStarting line Steube +10. 2.2% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 115 (Sarasota County) carries the most.
Precinct 115 (Sarasota County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 229. It sits at Montavon +50 on our starting line, and 1.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 417 (Lee County) is a turnout race.
Montavon's side leads Precinct 417 (Lee County) by about 28 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,168 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 105 votes there.
Precinct 201 (Sarasota County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 201 (Sarasota County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 29, 2026, Steube had $2.08 million in cash on hand to Montavon's $24K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Montavon's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 197
- Slope
- 0.989
- R²
- 0.964
- Residual SD
- 3.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 36
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Montavon's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 24.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Montavon, with Steube, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,622 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 4,227 of them live where Montavon is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 22.1 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 23.4 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 25.1 points.
- Montavon wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Steube.
- In Precinct 115 (Sarasota County) and Precinct 417 (Lee County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 23.5 points toward Montavon's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,347 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 25,697 dials to 8,566 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,035 at our published rates: 8,566 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Matthew Montavon (D)
Retired United Nations official who served in the Peace Corps and with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization; he holds degrees from the Catholic University of America and Indiana University's School of Public and Environmental Affairs.
Cash on hand $23,859 and $96,489 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.
Greg Steube (R)
U.S. representative for the Sarasota-based district since 2019 who previously served three terms in the Florida House (2010 to 2016) and in the Florida Senate (2016 to 2018).
Cash on hand $2,083,868 and $1,337,887 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.
Michael J. Quirk (NPA)
Cybersecurity professional.
Cash on hand $4,592 and $11,552 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Steube +24.7. Matthew Montavon needs 85,885 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Matthew Montavon win Florida's 17th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,390 net votes; the gap is 85,885. The rest would take a 23.5-point national shift.
Where are the votes Matthew Montavon needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 115 (Sarasota County), Precinct 202 (Lee County), Precinct 417 (Lee County), Precinct 512 (Lee County), Precinct 535 (Sarasota County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Matthew Montavon need to persuade?
About 1,811 voters who lean Greg Steube today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,622 persuadable voters leaning Greg Steube.
When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?
Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Florida Division of Elections, election results
- Florida Senate, 2026 congressional plan EOGPCRP2026 (block assignments)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: Florida's 17th Congressional District election, 2026
- Florida Politics: 794030 greg steube will seek re election in cd 17 under new map
- Florida Politics: 762302 greg steube secures another donald trump endorsement