Upset Brief · FL-18 · Curtis Gibson (D) vs. Scott Franklin (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.5-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
52,378
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 3006 (Osceola County)
    Starting line Gibson +26. 2.8% split their ticket. About 3,199 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +351
  2. 02
    Precinct 3007 (Osceola County)
    Starting line Gibson +36. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,416 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +194
  3. 03
    Precinct 204 (Polk County)
    Starting line Gibson +70. 1.4% split their ticket. About 554 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +144
  4. 04
    Precinct 407 (Polk County)
    Starting line Gibson +37. 2.9% split their ticket. About 923 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +140
  5. 05
    Precinct 325 (Polk County)
    Starting line Gibson +69. 2.0% split their ticket. About 507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +132
  6. 06
    Precinct 412 (Polk County)
    Starting line Gibson +21. 2.3% split their ticket. About 973 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +109

The top 12 precincts carry 35% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,678 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Franklin today.
    +2,678
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 15,093 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gibson's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,545
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gibson's way.
    +330

Plus a national shift of 19.5 points of margin (47,825 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Gibson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Franklin.
  2. In Precinct 3006 (Osceola County) and Precinct 3007 (Osceola County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 19.5 points toward Gibson's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    193 precincts, R² 0.991, 32 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -75,379 to -19,385 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Gibson $1,452 cash on hand; Franklin $960,764.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    14,761 households, 44,282 dials, about 2,320 live conversations: an estimated $6,220 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,220 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.