Florida · U.S. House · District 18 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Curtis Gibson.

Q: Can Curtis Gibson win Florida's 18th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,553 net votes; the gap is 52,378. The rest would take a 19.5-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Curtis Gibson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 3006 (Osceola County), Precinct 3007 (Osceola County), Precinct 204 (Polk County), Precinct 407 (Polk County), Precinct 325 (Polk County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Curtis Gibson need to persuade?

About 1,339 voters who lean Scott Franklin today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,678 persuadable voters leaning Scott Franklin.

Q: When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Franklin starts 21.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,553 net votes toward Gibson, a 1.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 19.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Gibson the one standing if one comes.

52,378

net votes between Gibson and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

21.4 pts

Franklin lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find52,378

WherePrecinct 3006 (Osceola County), Precinct 3007 (Osceola County), Precinct 204 (Polk County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Franklin +21.4. Curtis Gibson needs 52,378 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

122,416 votes.

That is half of the 244,830 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Gibson stands today, and what is missing:

95,047 Curtis Gibson baseline

147,425 Scott Franklin baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Gibson wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Gibson short by 47,545.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,678

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,678

Who. 2,678 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Franklin today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Gibson needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Franklin.

Mobilize

1,545

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 15,093

Who. At least 15,093 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gibson's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

330

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 944

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gibson's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,553 net votes against a gap of 52,378. Still 47,825 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 19.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 35% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 3006 (Osceola County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +26. 2.8% split their ticket. About 3,199 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+351
02
Precinct 3007 (Osceola County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +36. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,416 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+194
03
Precinct 204 (Polk County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +70. 1.4% split their ticket. About 554 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+144
04
Precinct 407 (Polk County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +37. 2.9% split their ticket. About 923 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+140
05
Precinct 325 (Polk County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +69. 2.0% split their ticket. About 507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+132
06
Precinct 412 (Polk County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +21. 2.3% split their ticket. About 973 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+109
07
Precinct 423 (Polk County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +25. 2.4% split their ticket. About 1,113 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+107
08
Precinct 205 (Polk County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +69. 3.3% split their ticket. About 385 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+103
09
Precinct 3008 (Osceola County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +33. 2.4% split their ticket. About 685 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+94
10
Precinct 1001 (Osceola County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +14. 1.0% split their ticket. About 1,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+86
11
Precinct 419 (Polk County)mobilize
Starting line Gibson +22. 3.7% split their ticket. About 790 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+74
12
Precinct 1514 (Osceola County)persuade
Starting line Franklin +3. 2.4% split their ticket.
+71

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 3006 (Osceola County) carries the most.

Precinct 3006 (Osceola County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 351. It sits at Gibson +26 on our starting line, and 2.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 3007 (Osceola County) is a turnout race.

Gibson's side leads Precinct 3007 (Osceola County) by about 36 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,416 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 174 votes there.

Precinct 419 (Polk County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 419 (Polk County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 4,553 net votes. The gap is 52,378. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.9 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Gibson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 193
Slope: 0.927
R²: 0.991
Residual SD: 2.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 32

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Gibson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Gibson, with Franklin, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,678 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 15,093 of them live where Gibson is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 17.0 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 15.9 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 23.2 points.

Gibson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Franklin.
In Precinct 3006 (Osceola County) and Precinct 3007 (Osceola County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 19.5 points toward Gibson's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,320 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 44,282 dials to 14,761 households, before the last ballot is cast.

15K

households on the target list

44K

dials across three attempts

2,320

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,220 at our published rates: 14,761 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Curtis Gibson (D)

Former Lake Wales city commissioner (2017 to 2021) and commercial property manager with an associate degree in criminal justice and a bachelor's in interdisciplinary business.

Cash on hand $1,452 and $12,208 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Scott Franklin (R)

Businessman who has served in the U.S. House since 2021, representing the 15th District (2021 to 2023) and the 18th since 2023.

Cash on hand $960,764 and $850,000 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Deva Simmons (NPA)

Brooklyn-born educator who has lived in Polk County since 2002 and spent more than two decades teaching and mentoring students; she holds degrees from Columbia College and Adelphi University.

Cash on hand $5,764 and $21,932 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Franklin +21.4. Curtis Gibson needs 52,378 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Curtis Gibson win Florida's 18th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,553 net votes; the gap is 52,378. The rest would take a 19.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Curtis Gibson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 3006 (Osceola County), Precinct 3007 (Osceola County), Precinct 204 (Polk County), Precinct 407 (Polk County), Precinct 325 (Polk County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Curtis Gibson need to persuade?

About 1,339 voters who lean Scott Franklin today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,678 persuadable voters leaning Scott Franklin.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.