A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.0-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 255 (Collier County)

   Starting line Schwartzel +32. 7.0% split their ticket.
   +149
2. 02
   Precinct 303 (Lee County)

   Starting line Schwartzel +37. 5.5% split their ticket.
   +141
3. 03
   Precinct 314 (Lee County)

   Starting line Schwartzel +42. 3.5% split their ticket.
   +114
4. 04
   Precinct 305 (Lee County)

   Starting line Schwartzel +40. 6.8% split their ticket.
   +106
5. 05
   Precinct 316 (Lee County)

   Starting line Schwartzel +32. 3.7% split their ticket.
   +98
6. 06
   Precinct 317 (Lee County)

   Starting line Schwartzel +39. 3.9% split their ticket.
   +92

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  4,731 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Schwartzel today.
  +4,731
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts Arias's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Arias's way.
  +211

Plus a national shift of 34 points of margin (104,908 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Arias wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Schwartzel.
2. The national environment moves about 34.0 points toward Arias's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  118 precincts, R² 0.934, 16 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -140,726 to -69,644 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29

  Arias $19,203 cash on hand; Schwartzel $181,899.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  6,945 households, 20,836 dials, about 1,092 live conversations: an estimated $3,617 at published rates.