Florida · U.S. House · District 19 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Victor Arias.

Schwartzel starts 35.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,942 net votes toward Arias, a 1.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 34.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Arias the one standing if one comes.

109,850

net votes between Arias and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

35.6 pts

Schwartzel lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find109,850

WherePrecinct 255 (Collier County), Precinct 303 (Lee County), Precinct 314 (Lee County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Schwartzel +35.6. Victor Arias needs 109,850 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

154,265 votes.

That is half of the 308,528 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Arias stands today, and what is missing:

98,415 Victor Arias baseline

208,265 Jim Schwartzel baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Arias wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Arias short by 105,058.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,731

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,731

Who. 4,731 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Schwartzel today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Arias needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Schwartzel.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no precincts Arias's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

211

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 604

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Arias's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,942 net votes against a gap of 109,850. Still 104,908 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 34 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 24% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 255 (Collier County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +32. 7.0% split their ticket.
+149
02
Precinct 303 (Lee County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +37. 5.5% split their ticket.
+141
03
Precinct 314 (Lee County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +42. 3.5% split their ticket.
+114
04
Precinct 305 (Lee County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +40. 6.8% split their ticket.
+106
05
Precinct 316 (Lee County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +32. 3.7% split their ticket.
+98
06
Precinct 317 (Lee County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +39. 3.9% split their ticket.
+92
07
Precinct 313 (Lee County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +34. 3.2% split their ticket.
+87
08
Precinct 464 (Collier County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +40. 5.8% split their ticket.
+84
09
Precinct 318 (Lee County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +29. 3.9% split their ticket.
+82
10
Precinct 462 (Collier County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +40. 6.1% split their ticket.
+76
11
Precinct 212 (Lee County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +18. 3.1% split their ticket.
+72
12
Precinct 303 (Collier County)persuade
Starting line Schwartzel +40. 3.9% split their ticket.
+71

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 255 (Collier County) carries the most.

Precinct 255 (Collier County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 149. It sits at Schwartzel +32 on our starting line, and 7.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Schwartzel had $182K in cash on hand to Arias's $19K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 4,942 net votes. The gap is 109,850. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.6 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Arias's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 118
Slope: 0.932
R²: 0.934
Residual SD: 2.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 16

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Arias's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Arias, with Schwartzel, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,731 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Arias is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 30.2 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 36.1 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 38.5 points.

Arias wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Schwartzel.
The national environment moves about 34.0 points toward Arias's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,092 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 20,836 dials to 6,945 households, before the last ballot is cast.

6,945

households on the target list

21K

dials across three attempts

1,092

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,617 at our published rates: 6,945 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Victor Arias (D)

Owner and managing attorney of Arias Law Firm in Cape Coral, raised as one of eight children in New York's Douglas Houses; a Hamilton College graduate (1985).

Cash on hand $19,203 and $45,356 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Jim Schwartzel (R)

Naples native and president of Sun Broadcasting; a Bishop Verot High School and Stetson University (1998) graduate.

Cash on hand $181,899 and $2,065,485 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Seth Haskin (NPA)

Business manager with a bachelor's degree in neuroscience from Bethel University (2022).

Cash on hand $775 and $8,000 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Alexandra Zakhvatayev (Wri)

Journalist.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Schwartzel +35.6. Victor Arias needs 109,850 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Victor Arias win Florida's 19th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,942 net votes; the gap is 109,850. The rest would take a 34.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Victor Arias needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 255 (Collier County), Precinct 303 (Lee County), Precinct 314 (Lee County), Precinct 305 (Lee County), Precinct 316 (Lee County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Victor Arias need to persuade?

About 2,366 voters who lean Jim Schwartzel today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,731 persuadable voters leaning Jim Schwartzel.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.