Upset Brief · FL-02 · Amanda Marie Green (D) vs. Austin Rogers (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.4-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
63,645
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 4 (Gadsden County)
    Starting line Green +64. 4.3% split their ticket. About 664 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +189
  2. 02
    Precinct 5 (Gadsden County)
    Starting line Green +75. 6.8% split their ticket. About 486 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +176
  3. 03
    Precinct 2305 (Leon County)
    Starting line Green +38. 3.0% split their ticket. About 801 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +146
  4. 04
    Precinct 1321 (Leon County)
    Starting line Green +48. 3.4% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +133
  5. 05
    Precinct 2511 (Leon County)
    Starting line Green +41. 3.2% split their ticket. About 679 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +133
  6. 06
    Precinct 3513 (Leon County)
    Starting line Green +30. 2.9% split their ticket. About 793 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,993 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rogers today.
    +3,993
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 30,661 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Green's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,150
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Green's way.
    +427

Plus a national shift of 18.4 points of margin (56,074 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Green wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rogers.
  2. In Precinct 4 (Gadsden County) and Precinct 5 (Gadsden County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 18.4 points toward Green's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    323 precincts, R² 0.997, 58 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -91,290 to -20,294 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Green $28,038 cash on hand; Rogers $387,029.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    27,508 households, 82,525 dials, about 4,324 live conversations: an estimated $9,199 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,199 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.