Florida · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Amanda Marie Green.

Q: Can Amanda Marie Green win Florida's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,570 net votes; the gap is 63,645. The rest would take a 18.4-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Amanda Marie Green needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 4 (Gadsden County), Precinct 5 (Gadsden County), Precinct 2305 (Leon County), Precinct 1321 (Leon County), Precinct 2511 (Leon County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Amanda Marie Green need to persuade?

About 1,996 voters who lean Austin Rogers today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,993 persuadable voters leaning Austin Rogers.

Q: When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Rogers starts 20.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,570 net votes toward Green, a 2.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 18.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Green the one standing if one comes.

63,645

net votes between Green and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

20.9 pts

Rogers lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.4-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find63,645

WherePrecinct 4 (Gadsden County), Precinct 5 (Gadsden County), Precinct 2305 (Leon County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Rogers +20.9. Amanda Marie Green needs 63,645 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

152,215 votes.

That is half of the 304,428 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Green stands today, and what is missing:

118,909 Amanda Marie Green baseline

182,554 Austin Rogers baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Green wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Green short by 56,038.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,993

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,993

Who. 3,993 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rogers today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Green needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Rogers.

Mobilize

3,150

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 30,661

Who. At least 30,661 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Green's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

427

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,219

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Green's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,570 net votes against a gap of 63,645. Still 56,075 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 18.4 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 4 (Gadsden County)mobilize
Starting line Green +64. 4.3% split their ticket. About 664 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+189
02
Precinct 5 (Gadsden County)mobilize
Starting line Green +75. 6.8% split their ticket. About 486 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+176
03
Precinct 2305 (Leon County)mobilize
Starting line Green +38. 3.0% split their ticket. About 801 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+146
04
Precinct 1321 (Leon County)mobilize
Starting line Green +48. 3.4% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+133
05
Precinct 2511 (Leon County)mobilize
Starting line Green +41. 3.2% split their ticket. About 679 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+133
06
Precinct 3513 (Leon County)mobilize
Starting line Green +30. 2.9% split their ticket. About 793 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+119
07
Precinct 21 (Bay County)mobilize
Starting line Green +19. 3.5% split their ticket. About 1,147 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+111
08
Precinct 5260 (Leon County)mobilize
Starting line Green +23. 3.0% split their ticket. About 821 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+105
09
Precinct 5207 (Leon County)mobilize
Starting line Green +32. 2.8% split their ticket. About 660 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+104
10
Precinct 5105 (Leon County)mobilize
Starting line Green +28. 2.9% split their ticket. About 708 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+102
11
Precinct 5225 (Leon County)persuade
Starting line Green +12. 4.5% split their ticket. About 865 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+95
12
Precinct 1309 (Leon County)mobilize
Starting line Green +57. 3.4% split their ticket. About 369 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+93

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 4 (Gadsden County) carries the most.

Precinct 4 (Gadsden County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 189. It sits at Green +64 on our starting line, and 4.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 5 (Gadsden County) is a turnout race.

Green's side leads Precinct 5 (Gadsden County) by about 75 points on our starting line, and it cast about 486 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 126 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Rogers had $387K in cash on hand to Green's $28K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 7,570 net votes. The gap is 63,645. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.5 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Green's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 323
Slope: 0.958
R²: 0.997
Residual SD: 2.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 58

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Green's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Green, with Rogers, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,993 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 30,661 of them live where Green is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 18.1 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 21.9 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 20.5 points.

Green wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rogers.
In Precinct 4 (Gadsden County) and Precinct 5 (Gadsden County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 18.4 points toward Green's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,324 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 82,525 dials to 27,508 households, before the last ballot is cast.

28K

households on the target list

83K

dials across three attempts

4,324

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,199 at our published rates: 27,508 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Amanda Marie Green (D)

Florida State University graduate (bachelor's 2015, graduate degree 2017) in economics and public administration who began her career with USAID's largest implementing partner and has worked as an operations director and pricing expert on global health programs.

Cash on hand $28,038 and $348,120 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Austin Rogers (R)

Attorney and former general counsel to U.S. Sen. Rick Scott.

Cash on hand $387,029 and $1,010,277 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Rogers +20.9. Amanda Marie Green needs 63,645 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Amanda Marie Green win Florida's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,570 net votes; the gap is 63,645. The rest would take a 18.4-point national shift.

Where are the votes Amanda Marie Green needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 4 (Gadsden County), Precinct 5 (Gadsden County), Precinct 2305 (Leon County), Precinct 1321 (Leon County), Precinct 2511 (Leon County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Amanda Marie Green need to persuade?

About 1,996 voters who lean Austin Rogers today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,993 persuadable voters leaning Austin Rogers.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.