A long shot on the math: it takes a 36.7-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct J011 (Broward County)

   Starting line Schultz +32. 2.3% split their ticket.
   +51
2. 02
   Precinct N012 (Broward County)

   Starting line Schultz +22. 2.3% split their ticket.
   +48
3. 03
   Precinct F004 (Broward County)

   Starting line Schultz +25. 2.6% split their ticket.
   +47
4. 04
   Precinct J012 (Broward County)

   Starting line Schultz +34. 2.4% split their ticket.
   +45
5. 05
   Precinct M006 (Broward County)

   Starting line Schultz +26. 2.6% split their ticket.
   +44
6. 06
   Precinct G010 (Broward County)

   Starting line Schultz +27. 2.3% split their ticket.
   +43

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  2,414 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Schultz today.
  +2,414
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts Andersen's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Andersen's way.
  +208

Plus a national shift of 36.7 points of margin (80,827 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Andersen wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Schultz.
2. The national environment moves about 36.7 points toward Andersen's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  155 precincts, R² 0.996, 28 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -106,527 to -55,433 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29

  Andersen $40,623 cash on hand; Schultz $1,861,373.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  3,742 households, 11,225 dials, about 588 live conversations: an estimated $2,135 at published rates.