Florida · U.S. House · District 20 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Brent Andersen.

Schultz starts 37.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 2,622 net votes toward Andersen, a 1.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 36.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Andersen the one standing if one comes.

83,450

net votes between Andersen and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

37.9 pts

Schultz lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 36.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find83,450

WherePrecinct J011 (Broward County), Precinct N012 (Broward County), Precinct F004 (Broward County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Schultz +37.9. Brent Andersen needs 83,450 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

110,034 votes.

That is half of the 220,067 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Andersen stands today, and what is missing:

67,364 Brent Andersen baseline

150,814 Debbie Wasserman Schultz baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Andersen wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Andersen short by 80,991.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,414

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,414

Who. 2,414 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Schultz today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Andersen needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Schultz.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no precincts Andersen's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

208

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 594

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Andersen's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 2,622 net votes against a gap of 83,450. Still 80,828 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 36.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct J011 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +32. 2.3% split their ticket.
+51
02
Precinct N012 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +22. 2.3% split their ticket.
+48
03
Precinct F004 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +25. 2.6% split their ticket.
+47
04
Precinct J012 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +34. 2.4% split their ticket.
+45
05
Precinct M006 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +26. 2.6% split their ticket.
+44
06
Precinct G010 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +27. 2.3% split their ticket.
+43
07
Precinct E016 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +11. 2.2% split their ticket.
+43
08
Precinct G003 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +14. 3.0% split their ticket.
+41
09
Precinct E007 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +14. 2.6% split their ticket.
+40
10
Precinct G008 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +26. 1.9% split their ticket.
+40
11
Precinct C020 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +18. 2.0% split their ticket.
+38
12
Precinct E008 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Schultz +14. 2.0% split their ticket.
+38

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct J011 (Broward County) carries the most.

Precinct J011 (Broward County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 51. It sits at Schultz +32 on our starting line, and 2.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct G003 (Broward County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct G003 (Broward County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Schultz had $1.86 million in cash on hand to Andersen's $41K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 2,622 net votes. The gap is 83,450. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.2 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Andersen's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 155
Slope: 0.968
R²: 0.996
Residual SD: 1.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 28

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Andersen's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Andersen, with Schultz, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,414 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Andersen is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 37.1 points; Mucarsel-Powell carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 40.4 points; Demings carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 40.0 points.

Andersen wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Schultz.
The national environment moves about 36.7 points toward Andersen's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

588 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 11,225 dials to 3,742 households, before the last ballot is cast.

3,742

households on the target list

11K

dials across three attempts

588

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,135 at our published rates: 3,742 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Brent Andersen (R)

Conservative businessman and insurance broker, the son of a public school teacher and a union asbestos worker, with a bachelor's degree from Nichols College (2000).

Cash on hand $40,623 and $63,849 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

U.S. representative since 2005 who chaired the Democratic National Committee from 2011 to 2016 and earlier served in the Florida House and Florida Senate.

Cash on hand $1,861,373 and $3,300,107 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Kedner Maxime (Ind)

Cash on hand $2,541 and $18,049 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Schultz +37.9. Brent Andersen needs 83,450 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Brent Andersen win Florida's 20th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 2,622 net votes; the gap is 83,450. The rest would take a 36.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Brent Andersen needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct J011 (Broward County), Precinct N012 (Broward County), Precinct F004 (Broward County), Precinct J012 (Broward County), Precinct M006 (Broward County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Brent Andersen need to persuade?

About 1,207 voters who lean Debbie Wasserman Schultz today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,414 persuadable voters leaning Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.