Upset Brief · FL-21 · James T. Martin (D) vs. Brian Mast (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.6-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
66,310
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County)
    Starting line Martin +84. 1.1% split their ticket. About 604 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +182
  2. 02
    Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County)
    Starting line Martin +70. 1.8% split their ticket. About 491 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +132
  3. 03
    Precinct 18 (St. Lucie County)
    Starting line Martin +75. 4.2% split their ticket. About 347 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +102
  4. 04
    Precinct 19 (St. Lucie County)
    Starting line Martin +30. 2.3% split their ticket. About 813 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +99
  5. 05
    Precinct 24 (St. Lucie County)
    Starting line Martin +59. 2.4% split their ticket. About 401 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +92
  6. 06
    Precinct 8611 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Martin +56. 3.7% split their ticket. About 291 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +62

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,486 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mast today.
    +3,486
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,592 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Martin's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,058
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Martin's way.
    +333

Plus a national shift of 18.6 points of margin (61,433 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Martin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mast.
  2. In Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County) and Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 18.6 points toward Martin's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    291 precincts, R² 0.973, 71 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -99,272 to -22,884 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Martin $188,045 cash on hand; Mast $2,928,458.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    10,706 households, 32,118 dials, about 1,683 live conversations: an estimated $4,777 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,777 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.