Florida · U.S. House · District 21 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for James T. Martin.

Q: Can James T. Martin win Florida's 21st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,877 net votes; the gap is 66,310. The rest would take a 18.6-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes James T. Martin needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 18 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 19 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 24 (St. Lucie County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does James T. Martin need to persuade?

About 1,743 voters who lean Brian Mast today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,486 persuadable voters leaning Brian Mast.

Q: When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Mast starts 20.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,877 net votes toward Martin, a 1.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 18.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Martin the one standing if one comes.

66,310

net votes between Martin and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

20.1 pts

Mast lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.6-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find66,310

WherePrecinct 17 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 18 (St. Lucie County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Mast +20.1. James T. Martin needs 66,310 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

164,930 votes.

That is half of the 329,859 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Martin stands today, and what is missing:

130,610 James T. Martin baseline

196,920 Brian Mast baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Martin wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Martin short by 61,267.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,486

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,486

Who. 3,486 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mast today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Martin needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Mast.

Mobilize

1,058

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,592

Who. At least 7,592 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Martin's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

333

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 952

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Martin's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,877 net votes against a gap of 66,310. Still 61,433 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 18.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 21% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County)mobilize
Starting line Martin +84. 1.1% split their ticket. About 604 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+182
02
Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County)mobilize
Starting line Martin +70. 1.8% split their ticket. About 491 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+132
03
Precinct 18 (St. Lucie County)mobilize
Starting line Martin +75. 4.2% split their ticket. About 347 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+102
04
Precinct 19 (St. Lucie County)mobilize
Starting line Martin +30. 2.3% split their ticket. About 813 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+99
05
Precinct 24 (St. Lucie County)mobilize
Starting line Martin +59. 2.4% split their ticket. About 401 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+92
06
Precinct 8611 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Martin +56. 3.7% split their ticket. About 291 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
07
Precinct 4 (Martin County)persuade
Starting line Mast +32. 3.6% split their ticket.
+58
08
Precinct 83 (St. Lucie County)persuade
Starting line Martin +1. 2.5% split their ticket.
+58
09
Precinct 4505 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Martin +46. 1.6% split their ticket. About 316 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+57
10
Precinct 8617 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Martin +41. 3.9% split their ticket. About 315 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+54
11
Precinct 50 (St. Lucie County)persuade
Starting line Mast +2. 2.2% split their ticket.
+54
12
Precinct 12 (St. Lucie County)persuade
Starting line Mast +40. 3.3% split their ticket.
+52

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County) carries the most.

Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 182. It sits at Martin +84 on our starting line, and 1.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County) is a turnout race.

Martin's side leads Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County) by about 70 points on our starting line, and it cast about 491 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 119 votes there.

Precinct 18 (St. Lucie County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 18 (St. Lucie County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Mast had $2.93 million in cash on hand to Martin's $188K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Martin's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 291
Slope: 0.994
R²: 0.973
Residual SD: 3.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 71

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Martin's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Martin, with Mast, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,486 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 7,592 of them live where Martin is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 16.2 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 14.3 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 21.7 points.

Martin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mast.
In Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County) and Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 18.6 points toward Martin's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,683 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 32,118 dials to 10,706 households, before the last ballot is cast.

11K

households on the target list

32K

dials across three attempts

1,683

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,777 at our published rates: 10,706 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

James T. Martin (D)

Lieutenant commander in the U.S. Coast Guard Reserve.

Cash on hand $188,045 and $579,319 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Brian Mast (R)

U.S. representative since 2017 and chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee since 2025; a U.S. Army bomb disposal technician in Afghanistan, he received the Bronze Star and Purple Heart.

Cash on hand $2,928,458 and $4,308,890 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Alexander Cooke (NPA)

Former mayor and council member of Juno Beach (2022 to 2024) and financial executive with more than 20 years in investment management and trading; a Fairfield University graduate.

Cash on hand $665 and $19,543 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

David Fabrikant (Wri)

Attorney with 25 years of experience, including 15 years helping people with financial struggles; he holds degrees from the University of Florida and St. Thomas University law school.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Mast +20.1. James T. Martin needs 66,310 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can James T. Martin win Florida's 21st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,877 net votes; the gap is 66,310. The rest would take a 18.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes James T. Martin needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 18 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 19 (St. Lucie County), Precinct 24 (St. Lucie County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does James T. Martin need to persuade?

About 1,743 voters who lean Brian Mast today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,486 persuadable voters leaning Brian Mast.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.