Upset Brief · FL-22 · Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.6-point national wave.

4%
odds today
7%
odds with the plan
33,229
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct E011 (Broward County)
    Starting line Dandiya +27. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,431 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +161
  2. 02
    Precinct N013 (Broward County)
    Starting line Dandiya +18. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,454 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +122
  3. 03
    Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Dandiya +76. 2.0% split their ticket. About 398 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +111
  4. 04
    Precinct 5501 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Dandiya +48. 1.3% split their ticket. About 603 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +108
  5. 05
    Precinct 1602 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Dandiya +90. 2.3% split their ticket. About 312 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +105
  6. 06
    Precinct F008 (Broward County)
    Starting line Dandiya +14. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,562 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +103

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,163 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Askar today.
    +3,163
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 19,528 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dandiya's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,420
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dandiya's way.
    +329

Plus a national shift of 10.6 points of margin (28,317 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Dandiya wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Askar.
  2. In Precinct E011 (Broward County) and Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 10.6 points toward Dandiya's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    201 precincts, R² 0.979, 34 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -60,112 to 2,811 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Dandiya $1,296,684 cash on hand; Askar $1,058,655.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,488 households, 55,464 dials, about 2,906 live conversations: an estimated $6,872 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,872 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.