Florida · U.S. House · District 22 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Pia Dandiya.

Askar starts 12.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,912 net votes toward Dandiya, a 1.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 10.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Dandiya the one standing if one comes.

33,229

net votes between Dandiya and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

12.4 pts

Askar lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.6-point national wave.

Odds today4%

Odds with the plan7%

Net votes to find33,229

WherePrecinct E011 (Broward County), Precinct N013 (Broward County), Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Askar +12.4. Pia Dandiya needs 33,229 net votes. Odds 4% today, 7% with the plan.

The number

134,108 votes.

That is half of the 268,214 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Dandiya stands today, and what is missing:

116,462 Pia Dandiya baseline

149,690 Casey Askar baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

4% today. 7% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Dandiya wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Dandiya short by 28,496.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,163

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,163

Who. 3,163 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Askar today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Dandiya needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Askar.

Mobilize

1,420

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 19,528

Who. At least 19,528 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dandiya's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

329

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 940

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dandiya's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,912 net votes against a gap of 33,229. Still 28,317 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 10.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 25% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct E011 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +27. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,431 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+161
02
Precinct N013 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +18. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,454 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+122
03
Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +76. 2.0% split their ticket. About 398 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+111
04
Precinct 5501 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +48. 1.3% split their ticket. About 603 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+108
05
Precinct 1602 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +90. 2.3% split their ticket. About 312 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+105
06
Precinct F008 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +14. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,562 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+103
07
Precinct Q043 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Askar +2. 2.6% split their ticket.
+100
08
Precinct 001 (Hendry County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +27. 2.3% split their ticket. About 855 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+92
09
Precinct F009 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +11. 3.0% split their ticket. About 1,408 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+92
10
Precinct T008 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +12. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,441 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+90
11
Precinct 6601 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Dandiya +73. 1.7% split their ticket. About 325 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+88
12
Precinct 194 (Collier County)persuade
Starting line Askar +47. 5.0% split their ticket.
+76

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct E011 (Broward County) carries the most.

Precinct E011 (Broward County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 161. It sits at Dandiya +27 on our starting line, and 2.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County) is a turnout race.

Dandiya's side leads Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County) by about 76 points on our starting line, and it cast about 398 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 105 votes there.

Precinct 194 (Collier County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 194 (Collier County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Dandiya has the cash edge.

As of July 29, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Dandiya had $1.30 million in cash on hand to Askar's $1.06 million. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Dandiya's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 201
Slope: 1.096
R²: 0.979
Residual SD: 3.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 34

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Dandiya's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Dandiya, with Askar, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,163 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 19,528 of them live where Dandiya is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.5 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 10.8 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 12.5 points.

Dandiya wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Askar.
In Precinct E011 (Broward County) and Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 10.6 points toward Dandiya's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

2,906 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 55,464 dials to 18,488 households, before the last ballot is cast.

18K

households on the target list

55K

dials across three attempts

2,906

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,872 at our published rates: 18,488 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Pia Dandiya (D)

Former Apple manager who led public-sector work in the Southeast, a former White House Fellow and founding principal of a Harlem high school; she was born and raised in Palm Beach County.

Cash on hand $1,296,684 and $2,284,052 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Casey Askar (R)

U.S. Marine Corps veteran and businessman who came to America from Iraq as a child and built a large portfolio of franchise businesses employing thousands; he lives in Naples.

Cash on hand $1,058,655 and $2,578,519 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Askar +12.4. Pia Dandiya needs 33,229 net votes. Odds 4% today, 7% with the plan.

Questions

Can Pia Dandiya win Florida's 22nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,912 net votes; the gap is 33,229. The rest would take a 10.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes Pia Dandiya needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct E011 (Broward County), Precinct N013 (Broward County), Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County), Precinct 5501 (Palm Beach County), Precinct 1602 (Palm Beach County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Pia Dandiya need to persuade?

About 1,582 voters who lean Casey Askar today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,163 persuadable voters leaning Casey Askar.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.