A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.9-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct V009 (Broward County)

   Starting line Gilbert +16. 3.2% split their ticket.
   +40
2. 02
   Precinct V015 (Broward County)

   Starting line Gilbert +7. 3.3% split their ticket.
   +40
3. 03
   Precinct V028 (Broward County)

   Starting line Brown +2. 3.0% split their ticket.
   +37
4. 04
   Precinct V008 (Broward County)

   Starting line Gilbert +44. 3.2% split their ticket.
   +37
5. 05
   Precinct V017 (Broward County)

   Starting line Gilbert +9. 3.5% split their ticket.
   +36
6. 06
   Precinct W002 (Broward County)

   Starting line Gilbert +50. 2.8% split their ticket.
   +34

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  1,790 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gilbert today.
  +1,790
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 14 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Brown's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +1
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Brown's way.
  +178

Plus a national shift of 40.9 points of margin (74,589 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Brown wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gilbert.
2. The national environment moves about 40.9 points toward Brown's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  220 precincts, R² 0.990, 32 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -95,617 to -53,614 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29

  Brown $298,626 cash on hand; Gilbert $229,093.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  2,831 households, 8,493 dials, about 445 live conversations: an estimated $1,615 at published rates.